The Day at a Glance | February 14 2025

• In the US, retail sales unexpectedly declined in the first month of 2025.
• Later today, the US will release industrial production figures for January, with expectations pointing to a 0.3% m/m increase in industrial activity.
• The Eurozone´s economy grew slightly more than initially estimated in the last quarter of 2024 (0.1% q/q), but employment barely improved, confirming that the economy among the 20 countries sharing the Euro remains stagnant.
• As Germany prepares for elections next week, investors are sending a clear message: it is the only major economy with room to increase spending and stimulate growth without fearing financial market backlash.
• In December 2024, the Leading Indicator of Private Consumption (IOCP) pointed to a 0.6% y/y increase in the Monthly Indicator of Private Consumption (IMCP), while for January 2025, a 1.9% increase is estimated.
• According to a Reuters survey, Japan’s core consumer inflation likely accelerated in January compared to the previous month, reaching its fastest pace in 17 months, driven by rising food prices and reduced energy subsidies.
• Oil prices rose on Friday, heading for their first weekly gain in three weeks, boosted by increasing fuel demand and expectations that the planned reciprocal global tariffs by the US will not take effect before April, allowing more time to avert a trade war.

Economic Environment

In the US, retail sales unexpectedly fell in the first month of 2025. In January, retail sales declined by -0.9% m/m, far below expectations of a -0.1% m/m drop and sharply down from the 0.7% m/m increase in the previous month. Excluding volatile categories such as autos and gasoline, retail sales fell by -0.5% m/m in January, following a 0.5% m/m gain in December. On an annual basis, retail sales rose 4.8% in January, while sales excluding autos and gasoline rose 4.5%. Within retail sales, online sales stood out with a 6.9% y/y increase, whereas department store sales rose by just 1.4% y/y. Overall, US retail sales weakened significantly, likely due to severe weather in several states and consumer caution amidst tariff concerns.

Markets and Companies

US stock futures traded slightly higher this morning as investors assessed the impact of Trump’s trade policy after he signed a plan imposing reciprocal tariffs on countries that tax US products. The major indices were on track to end the week with gains. In Europe, markets traded mixed after reaching record highs, driven by corporate earnings reports and optimism over a potential peace agreement in Ukraine. Meanwhile, in Asia, markets closed mixed.

In the commodities market, oil rebounded as investors monitored potential peace agreements between Russia and Ukraine. Meanwhile, gold prices rose to $2,925 per ounce.

In fixed income, the US 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.47%, while the 2-year yield was at 4.27%.

In the local equity market, IPC futures traded higher at 54,696 points, while the exchange rate stood at 20.33 pesos per dollar, a slight appreciation compared to yesterday´s 20.41 at market close.

Walmex reported 4Q24 results with consolidated revenue growth of +8.3%, driven by gains in Mexico and Central America. In terms of profitability, the gross margin remained stable at 23.7%, while general expenses increased by +14.7%. As a result, EBITDA rose by +2.5%, with the margin contracting by 50 basis points year-over-year.

Corporate News

• GameStop is considering investing in Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies as a diversification strategy, driven by its CEO’s interest in digital assets.
• Airbnb exceeded expectations in both revenue and earnings for the fourth quarter, highlighting sustained demand in the market.
• Roku posted better-than-expected results, with growth in advertising revenue and strong performance in its streaming platform.