The Day at a Glance | December 4 2024

The Top

• The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) updated its global macroeconomic outlook.

• The US ISM Services Index will be released later today, with markets estimating 55.5 points for November.

• The ADP private employment survey showed 146,000 jobs were created in November 2024, roughly in line with the consensus estimate of 150,000.

• Eurozone producer prices fell by -3.2% y/y in October 2024, moderating from a -3.4% decline in September and below market expectations of a -3.3% drop.

• Germany’s PMI´s revealed that the services sector contracted in November for the first time in nine months as demand conditions continued to deteriorate.

• South Korean lawmakers introduced a bill on Wednesday to impeach President Yoon Suk Yeolafter he declared martial law in the country, only to revoke the decision hours later following a chaotic standoff between parliament and the military.

• Oil prices are logging few changes on Wednesday as traders await an expected OPEC+ announcement extending supply cuts this week, while rising geopolitical tensions continue to dominate market sentiment.

Economic Environment

The Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) updated its global macroeconomic outlook, forecasting global GDP growth of 3.2% in 2024, followed by a slight acceleration to 3.3% in 2025 and 2026. However, significant regional and country-level divergences are expected, driven by downside risks and uncertainty. Key risks include escalating trade tensions, rising protectionism, geopolitical threats, and fiscal challenges across several nations. In this context, if inflation continues to decline, the OECD believes central banks should maintain a path of monetary policy easing. Meanwhile, governments must implement credible strategies to manage public finances, particularly given high debt levels and spending pressures.The OECD forecasts US economic growth of 2.8% in 2024, slowing to 2.4% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026. For the Eurozone, growth estimates are 0.8%, 1.3%, and 1.5% over the same years. In China, the economy is expected to expand by 4.9%, 4.7%, and 4.4% in 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively. Mexico’s economy is projected to grow modestly in the coming years, with a forecast of 1.4% growth in 2024, 1.2% in 2025, and 1.6% in 2026. Overall, the OECD’s findings set in line with those of other international organizations, highlighting strong growth in the US this year, a moderation in subsequent years, weaker growth in China, a mild recovery in the Eurozone, and continued weakness in Mexico´s economy. 

Markets and Companies

US futures are rising, as they are being driven by Salesforce and Marvell Technology, which led gains in tech stocks after posting strong quarterly results.

European markets edge higher as investors await the no-confidence vote in France’s parliament. The Stoxx 600 was up 0.2% at 10:15 a.m. London time; the automotive sector led gains with a 1.2% increase, while healthcare, food and beverage, and basic resources sectors were in negative territory.

Meanwhile, in Asia, South Korean markets fell on Wednesday as pressure mounted on President Yoon Suk Yeolto resign after imposing and then lifting a martial law decree within hours.

Oil prices remain steady on Wednesday as markets anticipate OPEC+ to announce an extension to production cuts this week, amidst continued geopolitical tensions dominating market sentiment.

Metals and cryptocurrencies are logging mixed figures. In Mexico, IPyC futures are steady (0.01%).

The exchange rate stands at 20.33 after closing at 20.32 yesterday.

Corporate News

• Salesforce shares rose more than 12% after the company exceeded third-quarter revenue expectations.

• Pure Storage shares surged 21% after the company beat third-quarter estimates.