The Day at a Glance | December 23 2022

*Economic activity in Mexico slowed down more than expected in October.

*Timely trade balance data pointed towards a 96 million dollar deficit in November along with a double-digit decrease in oil exports.

*In the US, November`s leading indicator surprised to the upside by setting at -1.0% (vs -0.5%e.).

*Durable goods orders in the US logged a -2.1% annual contraction in November.

*The Kansas City FED`s manufacturing activity index went further into contractionary territory with a -9 figure (vs -6 prev.).

*In Japan, consumer inflation reached a 31-year high; 3.8%.

*Russia could cut oil production by between 5% and 7% as a response to the crude oil price cap.

*In Washington, the House of Representatives will vote on 1.6 trillion dollar spending bill to finance the federal government and avoid its shutdown.

Economic environment

The Global Economic Activity Index (IGAE for its initials in Spanish) logged no changes on a monthly basis. The 0% monthly figure compared negatively against the 0.7% recorded in September and the 0.15% figure expected by the analyst consensus. Primary and tertiary activities decreased -2.6% and -0.1% monthly, respectively; while secondary activities increased slightly (0.4%). At an annual rate, the IGAE hiked 4.8%, a figure that set slightly below the Timely Indicator of Economic Activity (IOAE for its initials in Spanish) which expected a 5.0% figure and was made public on November 18th. At a disaggregated level, tertiary activities logged the greatest annual growth (5.5%), followed by primary activities (5.1%) and secondary activities (3.3% annual). Overall, the fourth quarter`s first month logged notorious moderation with respect to what was seen in August and September, a trend that could continue throughout the remainder of the year, as the IOAE made known at the start of this week expected a 4.2% annual figure for November`s IGAE. The INEGI also made November`s trade balance figures known, which logged a 96 million dollar deficit, more than double of what was recorded last year (-47 million dollars). With this, the cumulative balance set at 27,405 million dollars. By component, exports set at 49,311 million dollars (+8% annual); figure that blends 46,835 million dollars (+9.2% annual) in non-oil exports and 2,477 million dollars (-10.4% annual) of oil exports. Imports set at 49,407 million dollars (8.1% annual), which blends 4,580 million dollars (-0.7% annual) of oil imports and 44,827 million dollars (+9.1% annual) of non-oil imports.

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