The Day at a Glance | December 16 2020

The Top

· PMI in the European economy exceeds estimates, although it remains in contraction during December (49.8 Dec. vs 45.8 e.).

· Bank of Mexico Law discussion and voting will be postponed until January.

· Retail sales in the US contract more than expected (-1.1% vs -0.3% e.) in November; October revised downwards (-0.1%).

· United States Congress shows progress regarding fiscal package negotiations; there is optimism but it still hasn’t reached an agreement.

· Fishing rights are the last issue keeping negotiations from reaching a Brexit agreement: EU.

· Federal Reserve monetary policy decision (1:00 PM Mexico City time).

· Economic indicators: US PMIs are expected to be published (Manuf. 55.7 e.; Serv. 55.9 e.).

Economic environment

Leading economic activity indicators in Europe showed stabilization in December, even though this could be temporary since new restrictions have been implemented in the region. The Composite PMI recovered (49.8 vs 45.3 Nov), with manufacturing activities showing acceleration (55.5) to their highest level since 2018; even though services continued to recede (47.3) – despite showing improvement with respect to previous months. The data suggests that the economic contraction seen in the fall had begun to stabilize, but it`s possible that the indicators will once again show weakness in January after new restrictions started being implemented in Germany, Holland and Italy. Germany, the block`s largest economy, started carrying out a total lockdown today after it failed to keep the virus`s spread under control through partial measures; something that will put pressure on January`s indices. However, surveyed businesses are optimistic towards 2021 and the employment`s rhythm of contraction has moderated.