The Day at a Glance | December 15 2023

*Eurozone PMI´s negatively surprised in December, indicating that the block’s economy is likely going through a recession. 

*Retail sales (+10.1% y/y vs. +7.6% prev.) and industrial production (+6.6% y/y vs. +5.6% prev.) in China are accelerating due to a low comparison base; fixed investment remains at +2.9% y/y. 

*At an annual economic meeting, Chinese leaders agreed to have a budget deficit of 3% of GDP in 2024. 

*The leading indicator for private consumption from INEGI suggests that domestic market private consumption increased by 4.8% y/y in October and 5.5% y/y in November. 

*According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), global coal consumption set a record in 2023.

Economic environment

PMI´s in the Eurozone negatively surprised with a rapid decline in overall activity in December. The most recent composite PMI figure set at 47.0 points, marking its lowest level in the past 2 months. Furthermore, the leading indicator remained in contractionary territory for a seventh consecutive month. Breaking it down, the manufacturing PMI remained unchanged at 44.2 points, setting below the estimated 44.5 point level; it´s been below the 50-point threshold for nine consecutive months. On the other hand, the services sector index declined to 48.1 points from 48.7 in the previous month, linking its fifth month in contractionary territory, well below the 50.8 point forecast. Overall, this surprisingly deep decline in the Eurozone’s activity indicates that the block’s economy is unquestionably going through a recession.