The Day at a Glance | December 10 2024

The Top

• In China, exports slowed significantly, and imports unexpectedly declined in November.

• On Monday, in one of their most dovish statements in over a decade, Chinese officials signaled their readiness to deploy any necessary stimulus to counter the impact of anticipated US trade tariffs on next year’s economic growth.

• According to a Reuters survey, the ECB is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points on December 12^th, with forecasts of at least another 100 bps in cuts next year as the economy slows and concerns about US tariffs increase.

• The US National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) reported on Tuesday that its Business Optimism Index reached 101.7 points in November, its highest level since June 2021, amidst postelection euphoria.

• In Mexico, the Consumer Confidence Index stood at 47.7 points in November 2024, decreasing by 1.8 points from its highest level since the series began in 2001 at 49.5 points, according to seasonally adjusted figures.

• Oil prices fell on Tuesday as concerns eased over the fallout from the ousting of Syria’s president.

Economic Environment

In China, exports slowed significantly, and imports unexpectedly declined in November. Exports increased6.7% y/y (7.0% prev.), below the consensus expectations of 8.5% y/y. This marked the eighth consecutive month of export growth, though it slowed considerably from a more than two-year high in October (12.7% prev.). Meanwhile, imports unexpectedly decreased -3.9% y/y, far below the consensus forecast of a 0.9% y/y increase, following a -2.3% contraction the previous month. Overall, China’s exports slowed significantly, and imports unexpectedly declined in November, signaling troubling signs for the world’s second-largest economy as the imminent return of Donald Trump to the White House introduces new trade risks. The disappointing trade figures follow other indicators showing uneven growth in November, suggesting Beijing needs to do more to bolster an economy that´s likely to face greater challenges in the coming year.

Markets and Companies

Futures for major US equity indices are trading with mixed figures. Yesterday, the stock market closed with declines, likely due to profit-taking after the S&P and Nasdaq reached new highs last week. This week, investors are awaiting the release of November’s consumer inflation data, which will be a key figure ahead of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting on December 17^th-18^th.

Treasury bond yields are rising in anticipation of this week’s US inflation data. The 2-year bond is trading at 4.14%, while the 10-year bond stands at 4.23%.

In commodities, oil prices are declining, while gold is up, reaching its highest level in two weeks.

In Mexico, IPC futures are trading higher, standing at 52,315 points. Regarding the peso-dollar exchange rate, it is trading at 20.15 after closing at 20.22 yesterday.

Cemex announced its collaboration in the construction of the Howard Frankland Bridge in Tampa, Florida, with an investment worth $865 million. This bridge will enhance connectivity between Tampa and St. Petersburg and serve as a key route for hurricane evacuation. Cemex has supplied over 141,000 cubic yards of concrete and 104,000 tons of aggregates. The project is expected to be completed before spring 2025.

Gfnorte announced a dividend payment of $3.6 pesos per share, which will be distributed on December 18^th.

Corporate News

• Oracle shares were down nearly 7% after reporting quarterly results below expectations. For this quarter, the company expects revenue growth of 7%-9%, along with a negative foreign exchange impact equivalent to 2% of revenues.

• Alaska Air Group provided better-than-expected guidance for 4Q24 and announced a $1 billion share repurchase program, boosting its stock price.