The Day at a Glance | April 29 2025

The Top

• In the U.S., the trade deficit widened further in March.

• Jerome Powell responded to Trump’s criticism by stating it’s better to act “too late” than make mistakes in monetary policy. The Fed is expected to leave thefederal funds rate unchanged in its May meeting.

• According to some officials, President Donald Trump’s administration plans to lift certain tariffs today on foreign auto parts used in vehicles and trucks manufactured in the U.S.

• Chinese officials said the new U.S. tariffs won’t derail their economic recovery efforts. China is maintaining its 5% growth target for 2025, despite external risks.

• Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney secured a comeback victory for the ruling Liberals in Monday’s election, positioning himself as a potential global advocate for multilateralism in contrast to U.S. President Donald Trump’s more protectionist policies.

• New Delhi is reportedly willing to include a clause in trade talks with Washington that would “shield” the agreement, ensuring no other trading partner receives more favorable terms, as it seeks to swiftly finalize a deal with the Trump administration, according to Indian officials.

• Oil prices fell Tuesday to near a two-week low as investors lowered their demand growth expectations amidst the U.S.-China trade war between the world’s two largest economies.

Economic Environment

In the U.S., the trade deficit widened further in March. During March, the U.S. goods trade deficit reached -$161.985 billion, compared to -$147.894 billion in February and -$92.775 billion in March of last year, according to seasonally adjusted figures from the Census Bureau. On a monthly basis, the deficit increased 9.6%, and on a yearly basis, it increased 74.6%. Exports of goods in March increased 6.8%, while imports surged 30.8%. A closer look at imports shows strong growth from February to March in consumer goods (excluding autos), which jumped 27.5%; autos increased 6.6%, and capital goods rose 3.8%, while industrial supplies dropped 13.5%. These early trade figures suggest that the widening trade deficit in March may have been driven by front-loading of purchases to avoid tariffs. However, the decline in industrial supplies signals the impact of the 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum that took effect. Similar effects could materialize across other categories following the implementation of a 10% global tariff and the escalation to tariffs above 100% between the U.S. and China.

Markets and Companies

U.S. stock indices were trading mixed this morning as investors remain focused on big tech earnings and progress in trade negotiations. Shares of General Motors declined after the company revised its annual guidance downward and suspended its share buyback program. In Europe, markets were also mixed amidst the earnings season, with Deutsche Bank standing out after reporting 39% growth in first-quarter net income. Lastly, Asian markets closed in negative territory.

In commodities, oil prices were down on expectations of weaker global demand due to prolonged trade tensions between the U.S. and China. Meanwhile, gold dropped to $3,303 per ounce, pressured by signs of easing trade tensions and a stronger dollar.

In fixed income, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield held steady at 4.20%, while the 2-year yield stood at 3.68%, signalingcaution ahead of several key economic data releases this week.

Meanwhile, Mexico’s IPC index was trading slightly lower at 56,858 points, and the exchange rate stood at 19.58 pesos per dollar, compared to 19.59 the previous day.

América Móvil will report its results later today. For the first quarter, we expect mid-single-digit revenue growth, driven by Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico at constant FX. We also anticipate a positive FX impact due to the depreciation of the peso against most of the currencies where the company operates.

Yesterday, Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico reported strong 1Q25 results, with figures surpassing expectations on both revenue and earnings. Revenue rose 30.1%, while EBITDA increased 21.1%, both well above our forecasts.

Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte reported 1Q25 results that exceeded our estimates in both revenue and earnings. Despite a particularly challenging environment, the company delivered a positive report, supported in part by strong growth in international passenger traffic and the depreciation of the exchange rate, which positively contributed to aeronautical revenue.

In 1Q25, Regional reported 12.6% year-over-year growth in its loan portfolio, while net interest income (before provisions) increased 8.4% year-over-year. Net income grew 1.1% year-over-year. Results were in line with expectations in terms of loan growth and revenue, but fell short on net income, leading to a mixed read on the quarter.

Alsea will report its quarterly results this afternoon. We expect a weak quarter, with consolidated revenue increasing in the high single digits, driven by favorable FX effects in Europe and an improvement in South America. However, EBITDA (pre-IFRS16) would decline, mainly due to a margin contraction in Mexico.

Chedraui will also release its quarterly results this afternoon; we anticipate a neutral report. Revenue growth in Mexico would be limited by a negative calendar effect and weak consumer spending, while revenue in the U.S. is expected to grow around 20%, supported by FX effects. The EBITDA margin in the U.S. would contract, though to a lesser extent than in 4Q24.

Walmex will publish its 1Q25 results after market close. We estimate mid-single-digit revenue growth, mainly due to moderate growth in Mexican operations, which account for roughly 80% of consolidated revenue. EBITDA is expected to increase in the low to mid-single digits.

Corporate News

• Coca-Cola beat earnings and revenue expectations in the first quarter and reaffirmed its full-year guidance, despite warnings about potential cost increases for inputs like aluminum amidst ongoing trade tensions.

• Pfizer expanded its cost-cutting program after reporting better-than-expected earnings, despite a revenue decline caused by lower demand for its Covid-19 antiviral treatment. The pharmaceutical company now forecasts $7.7 billion in savings by the end of 2027.