The Day at a Glance | April 25 2025

The Top

• Mexico´s economy remains weak despite a slight improvement in February.

• The Chinese government is considering lifting additional tariffs on certain U.S. products as a gesture to revive trade talks with Washington. The measure is not yet final.

• China’s top policymakers pledged to support the companies and workers most affected by the triple-digit tariffs imposed by the U.S., and urged the country to prepare for extreme scenarios.

• European Central Bank President Christine Lagardewarned on Friday that the continued escalation of trade tensions complicates the global inflation outlook.

• U.K. retail sales reported the strongest start to the year since 2021, which may provide a temporary boost to the economy, as rising costs and the trade war with the U.S. are increasingly hurting consumer confidence.

• On Thursday, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said that the central bank will continue raising interest rates if core inflation converges toward its 2% target, as forecasted.

• Oil prices fell on Friday and are headed for a weekly loss of over 3%, amidst concerns of oversupply and uncertainty surrounding trade negotiations between the U.S. and China.

Economic Environment

Mexico´s economy remains weak despite a slight improvement in February. In Mexico, the Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE)—a proxy for monthly GDP—rose 1.0% m/m in February 2025, based on seasonally adjusted figures. Breaking down the data, the primary sector expanded 1.0% m/m, while the secondary and tertiary sectors contracted -2.5% m/m and -0.6% m/m, respectively. On an annual basis, using original figures, the IGAE declined -0.7% in February 2025. By sector, primary activities fell -3.5% y/y, secondary -1.3% y/y, and tertiary -0.3% y/y. Economic activity data for February was mixed and in line with what the IOAE had forecasted, logging a monthly rebound but a significant contraction versus February 2024. Looking ahead, further declines in coming months cannot be ruled out, especially given the high level of uncertainty stemming from the U.S. administration’s trade threats.

Markets and Companies

In the United States, the main stock indices were mixed this morning after comments from President Trump tempered investor optimism. He stated that he would be satisfied with tariffs ranging from 20% to 50% on foreign goods within a year. In Europe, markets were posting gains. French technology company Safran stood out after exceeding earnings expectations. In Asia, markets closed mixed amidsthopes for potential easing in trade tensions between the U.S. and China.

In the commodities market, oil prices were trending lower. Brent and WTI are on track to end the week with losses due to concerns over oversupply and weakening global demand. Meanwhile, gold fell to $3,283 per ounce, weighed down by a stronger dollar.

In the fixed income market, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury held at 4.28%, while the 2-year stood at 3.80%. Meanwhile, Mexico’s IPC index was trading slightly lower at 56,343 points, and the exchange rate stood at 19.58 pesos per dollar, compared to 19.59 yesterday. 

Livepol released its quarterly results yesterday afternoon; it was a negative report. Revenues grew +10.4% year over year, driven by solid commercial and financial performance. However, higher costs, operating expenses, and provisions pressured margins, resulting in a -7.3% decline in EBITDA and a -19.1% drop in net income.

In 1Q25, Orbia reported revenues of $1,811 million, a 2.8% decrease compared to 1Q24, while EBITDA fell 21.7% y/y. Results came in below expectations. Adjusted EBITDA—which excludes legal, restructuring, and raw material supply disruption costs—stood at $260 million and would have represented a 3% y/y increase.

Following the weaker-than-expected 1Q25 EBITDA, Orbia revised its full-year EBITDA guidance downward. The company now expects adjusted EBITDA between $1,100 and $1,200 million, down from the previous estimate of $1,250 million. Excluding the $62 million in non-recurring impacts, reported 2025 EBITDA would range between $1,038 and $1,130 million. As such, we view the report as having a negative implication.

Coca-Cola Femsa released its quarterly results this morning. While consolidated volume declined -2.2%, revenues rose +10.0%, mainly due to pricing strategies and favorable foreign exchange effects (excluding those effects, revenues increased +5.9%). In terms of profitability, Adjusted EBITDA rose +11.0% year over year.

Southern Copper Corporation, a subsidiary of GrupoMéxico, reported its quarterly results. Revenues grew 20.1%, while adjusted EBITDA increased 23.1%. Copper production remained virtually unchanged, while production of zinc, silver, and molybdenum rose by 49.3%, 13.8%, and 8.5%, respectively.

Corporate News

• Alphabet reported results that exceeded market expectations, highlighting a 12% revenue increase, above the anticipated 10%. The search and advertising segments showed strength. The company also announced a $70 billion share buyback program, further boosting investor confidence.

• Intel issued weak guidance for the second quarter, overshadowing better-than-expected results in both revenue and earnings. New CEO Lip-Bu Tan warned of an uncertain macroeconomic environment and announced cuts to operating and capital expenditures for 2025, which will include layoffs.