The Day at a Glance | April 23 2025

The Top

• In Mexico, retail sales increased in February.

• On Tuesday, President Donald Trump backed off from his threats to dismiss Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, after several days of escalating criticism toward the central bank head for not cutting interest rates.

• According to Reuters, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Tuesday that he foresees a de-escalation in trade tensions with China, although he noted that negotiations with Beijing have not yet begun and warned they will be “arduous.”

• Eurozone PMIs indicated that business activity remained largely unchanged as new orders declined at the fastest pace of the year. The composite PMI stood at 50.1 (prev. 50), marking a four-month low.

• According to the IMF, new U.S. tariffs will push global public debt above pandemic levels, approaching 100% of global GDP by the end of the decade, due to slower growth and increased pressure on government budgets.

• The Bank of Japan is likely to keep its key interest rate unchanged until June, according to a Reuters poll of economists. A slight majority now expects a 25 basis point hike in the next quarter, down from more than two-thirds in the previous month’s survey.

• Oil prices fell about 1% on Wednesday after Kazakhstan took a defiant stance on increasing production, wiping out earlier gains that had been driven by U.S. sanctions on Iran, falling crude inventories in the U.S., and President Trump’s more conciliatory tone toward China.

Economic Environment

In Mexico, retail sales increased in February. INEGI reported that retail sales rose 0.2% m/m in February, below the market consensus expectation of a 0.3% m/m increase and January’s 0.7% m/m rise. On an annual basis, using original figures, sales declined -1.1% in February. Within the annual data, notable growth was logged in online and catalog sales (+13.2%), groceries, food, beverages, ice, and tobacco (+4.5%), and household appliances and computers (+3.2%). Conversely, there were annual declines in sales at department and self-service stores (-3.3%), motor vehicles, parts, and fuel (-1.8%), and textiles, apparel, and footwear (-0.7%). At the state level, nearly all Mexican states—except Guerrero—recorded annual declines in retail sales. Overall, the first two months of 2025 show slight improvement at the margin; however, on an annual basis, consumer spendingremains weak.

Markets and Companies

Main U.S. indices are trading higher on Wednesday after President Donald Trump said he has no plans to remove Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. He also signaled that tariffs on Chinese imports may be reduced.

In Europe, markets are also up, driven by a rebound in global optimism due to easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China. The Stoxx 600 was up 1.6% at 2:24 p.m. in London, with most sectors in positive territory.

Asian markets closed higher. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index led gains, rising 2.37%.

Regarding commodities, oil prices fell after Kazakhstan took a defiant stance on increasing its crude output.

Gold prices also declined after Trump softened his stance toward the Fed Chair and expressed optimism over a trade deal with China.

In Mexico, the IPC index is trading higher (0.59%).

The exchange rate stands at 19.55 after closing at 19.61 yesterday.

In 1Q25, Gfnorte reported a 13.5% y/y increase in its loan portfolio, while net interest income before provisions rose 3.7% y/y, and net profit increased 7.6% y/y. Results were in line with expectations, suggesting a neutral implication from the report. Net profit rose 7.6% y/y, while the ROE for the quarter stood at 23.4%, up from 22.0% in the same period last year.

In 1Q25, Alpek reported a 9.9% y/y decline in revenues (in USD) and an 18.2% y/y drop in comparable EBITDA. Results came in below our estimate, suggesting a negative implication. Additionally, we will be monitoring the earnings call for more details on whether the annual guidance could be revised downward, given a more challenging outlook than expected at the start of the year.

Corporate News

• Boeing shares rose more than 5% after the company reported a smaller loss for the first quarter. Boeing posted a net loss of $31 million, an improvement from the $355 million loss in the same period last year.

• Tesla shares rose more than 7% despite first-quarter results missing Wall Street expectations. During Tuesday’s earnings call, CEO Elon Musk said the time he spends at the Department of Government Efficiency will decrease “significantly” starting in May.