The Day at a Glance | April 22 2025

The Top

• The International Monetary Fund revised its global growth forecasts down.

• The Timely Indicator of Economic Activity (IOAE) estimates that the Mexican economy contracted in both February and March.

• President Donald Trump warned of a possible U.S. economic slowdown if the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates. He demanded immediate action to avoid a drop in growth.

• The U.S. is seeking to boost sales of energy and defense equipment to India, Vice President JD Vance said Tuesday during a visit to the country, adding that the relationship between the two nations will shape the course of the century.

• The People’s Bank of China urged state-owned enterprises to prioritize the use of the Yuan in international transactions, as part of its strategy to reduce dependence on the dollar amidst rising global tensions.

• The Japanese yen will likely be a key topic when Japan’s Finance Minister, Katsunobu Kato, meets with his U.S. counterpart in Washington this week, Scott Bessent. However, Tokyo is expected to resist any pressure to strengthen its currency.

• Oil prices rebounded on Tuesday in line with the recovery in equity markets, although concerns persist about economic headwinds from U.S. tariffs and monetary policy that could weigh on fuel demand.

Economic Environment

The International Monetary Fund revised its global economic growth forecasts down, issuing a broad downgrade across economies due to U.S. tariff policy. For 2025, the IMF now expects global GDP to fall from 3.3% to 2.8%, the U.S. from 2.7% to 1.8%, the Eurozone from 1.0% to 0.8%, Japan from 1.1% to 0.6%, the U.K. from 1.6% to 1.1%, Canada from 2.0% to 1.4%, China from 4.6% to 4.0%, and Mexico from 1.4% to -0.3%. Mexico is the only country forecasted to record a contraction in GDP. According to IMF Chief Economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the global economy is entering a new era after operating under the same system for the past 80 years. In this context, trade policies have shifted the global landscape, with U.S. tariff levels not seen since the Great Depression. The IMF’s baseline scenario of 2.8% global growth assumes the imposition of 10% reciprocal tariffs worldwide; however, if tariffs are lifted, growth could reach 3.2%. For Mexico, the estimate remains unchanged in either scenario.

The Timely Indicator of Economic Activity (IOAE) estimates the Mexican economy contracted in February and March. The IOAE, a nowcasting tool for the Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE), forecasts that the Mexican economy declined -0.2% y/y in both February and March 2025, based on seasonally adjusted data. By component, industrial output—which includes construction, manufacturing, electricity generation, and mining—rose 0.4% y/y in February but is estimated to contract -0.3% y/y in March. On the services side, the IOAE projects 0.4% y/y growth in February and 0.3% y/y in March. On a month-over-month basis, this implies 1.1% growth in February and stagnation in March, seasonally adjusted. As such, the IOAE suggests the economy may have regained some momentum in the first quarter of 2025, which contrasts with most other data pointing to a slowdown.

Markets and Companies

U.S. equity markets are trading higher, rebounding after the losses recorded yesterday following Donald Trump’s criticism of the Federal Reserve Chair. On the corporate front, investor attention is focused on Tesla’s earnings report, which will be released after the market close. Earlier in April, the company reported a 13% drop in vehicle deliveries for the quarter, prompting expectations of a decline in revenue. Meanwhile, yesterday, Donald Trump met with executives from major retailers including Walmart, Home Depot, and Target to discuss the imposition of tariffs in the U.S., their impact on these companies, and potential price increases.

The 10-year Treasury yield edged lower to 4.38%, while the 2-year yield stood at 3.79%. Trade tensions and concerns over a potential slowdown have put downward pressure on rates. Additionally, Bitcoin stood out by surpassing the $90,000 mark.

In commodities, oil and metals like gold and silver are trending higher. 

In Mexico, the Q1 2025 earnings season kicks off today, with reports from Gfnorte and Asur expected after market close.

Corporate News

• Amazon shares rose after the company decided to delay certain commitments related to new data center contracts, particularly abroad.

• Lockheed Martin shares climbed nearly 3% after reporting strong first-quarter earnings and reaffirming its full-year outlook, driven by robust demand for missiles and fighter jets.

• 3M shares jumped nearly 6% after its first-quarter results exceeded market expectations, posting adjusted earnings of $1.88 per share on revenue of $5.78 billion.