The Day at a Glance | April 21 2025

The Top

• The President of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) indicated that we will see downward revisions to growth and upward revisions to inflation in the upcoming economic outlook report.

• China’s Central Bank left its 1-year and 5-year interest rates unchanged at 3.1% and 3.6%, respectively, for the sixth consecutive month.

• On Monday, China accused Washington of abusing the use of tariffs and warned other countries about reaching broader economic agreements with the U.S. at their expense, escalating its rhetoric amidst a growing trade war between the world’s two largest economies.

• White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett stated on Friday that President Donald Trump and his team continue to assess whether they can remove Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, signaling that this possibility — with major implications for central bank independence and global markets — remains on the table.

• According to Reuters, the Bank of Japan is expected to signal next week that risks stemming from U.S. tariff hikes will not derail the ongoing wage and inflation spiral, which is considered key to continuing interest rate hikes.

• Oil prices fell 1.5% on Monday amidst signs of progress in U.S.–Iran talks, as investors remained concerned about economic hurdles stemming from tariffs, which could dampen fuel demand.

Economic Environment

The President of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) indicated that we will see downward revisions to growth and upward revisions to inflation in the upcoming World Economic Outlook (WEO) report, to be released Tuesday, March 22^nd. What can we expect in the April WEO? In her most recent speech, IMF President KristalinaGeorgieva was clear: significant downward revisions to growth — but not recessions — and upward revisions to inflation in several countries, driven by tariffs and trade retaliation. To explain the changes in the outlook, she cited three key factors: the uncertainty caused by tariffs, which is preventing businesses from making investment decisions; the tariffs themselves, which act like taxes and may ultimately be paid by consumers; and protectionism, which undermines long-term productivity, especially in small economies, resulting in lower potential growth. Additionally, Georgieva emphasized recent episodes of financial market stress, particularly movements in the U.S. Treasury yield curve and the recent depreciation of the dollar. In her view, these are warning signs that should not be ignored. Lastly — and no less important — she believes we are witnessing a reset of the global trade system; in other words, a paradigm shift, where the question “Where are things made?” could become more important than “How much does it cost to make them?”

Markets and Companies

Major U.S. indices are down on Monday following another negative week for Wall Street, as investors see few signs of progress in global trade negotiations. The main stock indexes have posted losses in three of the past four weeks.

In Europe, markets are closed due to Easter Monday. However, it’s worth noting that indexes recorded losses and closed nearly flat on Thursday, following the European Central Bank’s decision to cut interest rates.

In Asia, markets closed mixed after China’s central bank left its benchmark interest rates unchanged, at a time when the Yuan has faced pressure due to trade tensions between Beijing and Washington.

As for commodities, oil prices fell on signs of progress in negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, while investors remained concerned about the negative impact of U.S. tariffs on economic growth and fuel demand.

In contrast, gold prices reached a new all-time high amidstgrowing threats from President Trump against the Federal Reserve’s independence. Gold has risen 29% so far this year.

In Mexico, the IPC is up +1.19%.

The exchange rate stands at 19.63.

Alsea signed an agreement with Chipotle Mexican Grill to open restaurants in Mexico, starting with the first unit in early 2026. According to the released statement, the alliance is part of Chipotle’s international expansion strategy and strengthens Alsea’s portfolio of global brands.

Corporate News

• Tesla shares fell more than 4% after Barclays cut its price target, citing “confusing visibility” around its first-quarter results.

• Netflix shares rose 2% after beating earnings and revenue expectations for the first quarter. Netflix also said it does not expect a significant impact from tariffs. On Monday, several Wall Street analysts raised their price targets on the stock.