The Day at a Glance | April 2 2025

The Top

• The Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP) presented its 2026 Preliminary General Guidelines for Economic Policy.

• This afternoon, U.S. President Donald Trump will unveil a series of tariff measures as part of what he has called “Liberation Day.” The announcement is scheduled for 2:00 p.m. Mexico City time.

• European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde said the U.S. president’s tariff measures will be negative for the global economy and that their impact will depend on their duration and scope.

• The new tariffs to be imposed by the U.S. could have a major impact on global trade, said Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda. He added that, if implemented, they are expected to drive inflation higher in the U.S.

• Oil prices extended their losses on Wednesday amidstfears of reciprocal tariffs and their potential impact on global trade and crude demand.

Economic Environment

The Ministry of Finance and Public Credit (SHCP for its acronym in Spanish) presented its 2026 Preliminary General Guidelines for Economic Policy. This document outlines the ministry’s macroeconomic scenario and its forecasts for public finances through the end of 2025 and 2026. Regarding the macroeconomic outlook, the forecastedeconomic growth for 2025 was revised from a range of 2.0%–3.0% to 1.5%–2.3%, while the forecast for 2026 was set between 1.5% and 2.5%. The SHCP also estimates that the benchmark interest rate will stand at 8.0% by the end of this year and 7.0% by the end of next year. In terms of the exchange rate, the forecast was revised upward from 18.5 to 20.0 pesos for 2025 and from 18.7 to 19.7 pesos for 2026. Additionally, the estimate for the Mexican Export Oil Mix price was revised upward from $57.8 to $62.4 per barrel (dpb) for this year, with a new forecast of $55.3 dpb for year-end 2026. However, the oil production platform forecast was revised downward from 1.891 to 1.762 million barrels per day, and it remains nearly flat at 1.775 million for the same years. Accordingly, the SHCP made slight adjustments to its public finance forecasts for the end of 2025. For example, the Public Sector Borrowing Requirements are now expected to be between -3.9% and -4.0% of GDP (previously -3.9%), while the public balance was adjusted to -3.2% (previously -3.3%), and the primary balance remained unchanged at 0.6% of GDP. Meanwhile, the broadest measure of public debt was revised from 51.4% to 52.3% of GDP. However, the SHCP explained this was due to an accounting effect on the valuation of foreign currency liabilities resulting from the upward revision of the exchange rate forecast. Overall, some of the macroeconomic estimates seem optimistic—particularly in terms of economic growth—considering that consensus forecasts for this year are closer to 0.5%. We will be watching the upcoming SHCP´s call with analysts for more context on their macroeconomic outlook and fiscal estimates.

Markets and Companies

Markets in the U.S. are trading cautiously ahead of the expected tariff announcement from Trump. On Tuesday, the government said the tariffs would take effect “immediately.”

In Europe, markets are down as investors brace for the wave of new tariffs. After rebounding on Tuesday, the Stoxx 600 returned to negative territory Wednesday afternoon; most sectors are posting losses.

Meanwhile, Asia logged mixed figures. The Nikkei rose slightly, while the Hang Seng and Kospi declined. Inflation in South Korea and tariff uncertainty weighed on market sentiment across the region.

In commodities, oil is falling on fears of weaker global demand, while gold stands at $3,119 per ounce after reaching a record high yesterday.

In Mexico, the IPC is down (-0.51%) and the exchange rate is at 20.35.

Corporate News

• Tesla shares fell 2.3% amid anticipation of its first-quarter delivery report. Year to date, the stock is down 33.5%.

• Petco shares rose 7% after a recent SEC filing showed that CEO Joel Anderson purchased nearly 1.6 million shares.