The Day at a Glance | April 18 2024

The Top

*The Timely Economic Activity Indicator (IOAE for its acronym in Spanish) estimates that the Mexican economy grew by 2.1% in March 2024. 

*The ECB has made it “very clear” that interest rates could be cut in June, but has also stated that subsequent decisions are still up in the air, ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos said Thursday. 

*The US, Japan, and South Korea agreed to review currency markets in their first trilateral financial dialogue on Wednesday, acknowledging Tokyo and Seoul’s concerns about the recent sharp drops in their currencies. 

*Unemployment insurance claims in the US remained unchanged from the previous week at 212,000 for the period ending April 18th. 

*China’s central bank shows caution regarding credit momentum as demand weakens.

*The S&P 500 and DJI stock indices are trading positively, with the S&P potentially ending its four day negative streak. 

Economic environment

The Timely Economic Activity Indicator (IOAE for its acronym in Spanish) estimates that the Mexican economy grew by 2.1% in March 2024, according to seasonally adjusted figures. By components, industrial production, an indicator that encompasses construction, manufacturing, power generation, and mining, possibly grew by 1.6% in March 2024, after growing by 1.5% in February. On a monthly basis, March´s growth would set at 0.3%. On the services side, it is estimated that they grew by 2.5% year-on-year and 0.2% month-on-month during March. The IOAE forecasts that the economy resumed growth in the first quarter of the year, after observing a slowdown in various economic indicators in November and December. According to January´s IGAE figures and IOAE estimates, the economy possibly grew slightly less than 2% in the first quarter of 2024.

Markets and companies

The S&P 500 and DJ stock indices are trading positively, with the S&P potentially ending its four day negative streak. After a strong start to the year, markets have logged setbacks in April amidst changes in expectations regarding the timing of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts, in a context of persistently high inflationary levels – above the central bank’s target – and strong job creation. On corporate matters, the spotlight remains focused on first-quarter 2024 earnings reports; today, Netflix’s results are expected to be published after the closing bell. In Europe, stock markets were trading mixed, while Asia saw increases.

In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond showed a slight increase, reaching 4.6%.

In commodities, WTI is trading at $83.13 per barrel while Brent is at $87.5 dpb. Gold continued its upward trend, reaching $2,380.2 usd/oz.

In Mexico, the IPC is up, currently at 56,604.9 points.

The peso-to-dollar exchange rate stands at 17.0260, after closing at 16.9644 yesterday. In the early hours, it reached a high of 17.0337 and a low of 16.9217.

Corporate news

*Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing reported better-than-expected results. The company stated that it did not suffer structural damage from the earthquake in Taiwan and shared its guidance for the next quarter, expecting revenue between $19.6 and $20.4 billion.

*D.R. Horton reported quarterly results above expectations.

*Blackstone shares declined after the company announced it would decrease its dividend from 98 to 83 cents per dollar.