The Day at a Glance | April 12 2022

The Top

*Inflation increased in line with estimates in the United States (8.5% annual).

*WTO expects 3% growth in global trade during 2022, a downwards revision with respect to the previously estimated 4.7%.

*Ukraine expects Russia to double its military offensive strategy in the eastern part of the country this week – after a phase of regrouping.

*The Chamber of Deputies postponed voting on the electric power reform to April 17th.

*OPEC warns that it would be impossible to make up for Russia`s crude oil supply (7 mdb) if it`s targeted with sanctions.

*The President of Ukraine asked the EU to include Russian gas and oil in sanctions.

Economic environment

Inflation on the rise. Consumer prices continued to log an upwards trend in the United States and recorded an 8.5% annual rise during March. Month over month, the increase set at 1.2%, with the largest rises being logged among energy related prices (11%). Foods also continued to increase and logged a 1% monthly rate in March. Nevertheless, underlying inflation logged its slowest monthly pace of growth since September of 202 (a 0.3% rise). In fact, commodity prices even receded (-0.4%) during the month, and the decrease was led by used automobile prices (-3.8%) and more moderate inflation among new vehicles with respect to previous months (0.6%). As a result, underlying inflation increased more moderately – at a 6.5% annual rate. Markets interpreted this data as something positive, as it`s possible to see a deviation in underlying and overall prices; with signs that commodity prices are starting to weaken. High energy prices caused by the war in Ukraine were the main factor behind the high level of inflation this month, and if this ends up being a temporary phenomenon, inflation could be expected to start descending in the second half of the year.