Kapital Market Brief | September 9 2025

Top news

·     Mexico’s 2026 Economic Package shows optimism on growth and commitment to fiscal consolidation.

·     In Mexico, annual consumer inflation accelerated slightly in August.

·     The U.S. Department of Labor anticipates that nonfarm payrolls will be revised down by more than 800,000 jobs, reflecting a labor market less robust than initially estimated.

·     French President Emmanuel Macron faces the task of appointing a new head of government, following the dissolution of his cabinet amid rising political tensions.

Economic outlook

Mexico’s 2026 Economic Package shows optimism on growth and commitment to fiscal consolidation. The Economic Package submitted to Congress for fiscal year 2026 forecasts GDP growth in a range between 1.8% and 2.8%, above market consensus, reflecting an optimistic stance from the Finance Ministry regarding the recovery of economic momentum, driven mainly by domestic consumption. At the same time, the fiscal deficit is projected to decline to 4.1% of GDP from the 4.3% estimated for 2025, after the historically high level of 5.7% observed in 2024, suggesting a gradual path toward the consolidation of public finances. The package also incorporates an increase in tax collection, with greater reliance on excise taxes applied to products such as sugary drinks, tobacco, and video games, in a strategy that combines public health goals with fiscal sustainability. Significant allocations are maintained for social programs, infrastructure, and support for Pemex, considered key for macroeconomic stability. Overall, the economic package seeks a balance between growth and fiscal responsibility, though its implementation will depend on external factors such as global trade, export demand, and the evolution of public revenues over the coming year.

In Mexico, annual consumer inflation accelerated slightly in August. INEGI reported that the National Consumer Price Index registered a monthly variation of 0.06%, slightly below July’s figure (0.27%). On an annual basis, headline inflation stood at 3.57%, still within Banxico’s target range. Core inflation – which excludes the most volatile components such as energy, agricultural goods, and government-regulated prices – showed a monthly increase of 0.22%, also in line with expectations. On an annual comparison, core inflation reached 4.23%, with goods rising 4.05% y/y and services at 4.40% y/y. In contrast, non-core inflation showed a monthly decrease of -0.47% and stood at 1.38% annually, reflecting declines in agricultural prices and stability in energy.

Markets and stocks

In the U.S., futures opened with a positive bias after the previous session saw the Nasdaq reach a new record, driven by a rally in chipmakers such as Nvidia and Broadcom. Optimism stems from expectations of Fed rate cuts following the weak August jobs report, although investors remain cautious ahead of inflation data to be released tomorrow and Thursday. Apple, by contrast, was trading lower ahead of its much-anticipated event, where it will unveil its new line of iPhones and watches. Meanwhile, in Europe, markets were mostly higher after the announcement of the merger between Anglo American and Teck Resources, which gave a strong boost to the mining sector. In Asia, however, the outlook was negative.

In commodities, oil continued to climb after OPEC announced a smaller-than-expected production increase, reinforcing the perception of a tight market amid rising prospects of additional sanctions on Russia. Gold, on the other hand, hit a new all-time high, supported by the drop in the dollar and Treasury yields, as expectations of Fed rate cuts intensified.

In fixed income, U.S. Treasury yields edged slightly higher after recent sharp declines: the 10-year note was around 4.06% and the 2-year near 3.52%.

Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste reported that in August 2025 it handled 6 million passengers, an annual increase of 0.6%. Traffic in Puerto Rico grew 4.6% driven by the international segment, while in Colombia it rose 2.7% with a strong 12.8% surge in international passengers. In Mexico, by contrast, total traffic declined 1.6%, affected by weaker domestic and international flows.

Corporate news

Apple will hold its annual event today in Cupertino, where it will unveil the iPhone 17 Air, the thinnest device in its history, along with the new iPhone 17 Pro and Pro Max featuring camera and battery upgrades. The company will also refresh its smartwatch lineup with the Apple Watch Series 11, Ultra 3, and an updated SE version, in addition to adding a heart-rate sensor to the AirPods Pro.

Nebius Group, a cloud infrastructure company specializing in artificial intelligence, announced a multi-year agreement with Microsoft to provide technology capacity in this segment. The news was enthusiastically received by the market, as it strengthens Nebius’ position as an emerging player in high-performance computing services.

Fox Corp. confirmed that the Murdoch family resolved its succession dispute, with Lachlan Murdoch remaining at the helm of the conglomerate.

Anglo American agreed to acquire Canadian firm Teck Resources in a transaction that will create a company valued at more than $50 billion, one of the largest deals in the sector in more than a decade. The agreement will create a global copper leader headquartered in Vancouver and listed in London, New York, Toronto, and Johannesburg.