Kapital Market Brief | September 8 2025

Top news

·     In China, export growth in August was the weakest in six months amid rising tariff risks with the United States.

·     In July, German exports fell 0.6% y/y, including a 7.9% m/m drop to the U.S. However, German industrial production rose 1.3% m/m, extending signs of a cyclical recovery.

·     The presidents of China and Russia confirmed their participation in the BRICS Summit to be held in Brazil this year, in an effort to strengthen multilateral cooperation amid growing tensions with the U.S.

·     Analysts expect Mexico’s 2026 Economic Package, to be delivered to Congress this afternoon, to emphasize fiscal discipline, highlighting budget control to face economic challenges and preserve financial stability.

Economic outlook

In China, export growth in August was the weakest in six months amid rising tariff risks with the United States. The Asian giant reported an annual increase of 4.4% in overseas shipments, below the 5.0% consensus and the 7.2% observed in July, reflecting the fading boost from the tariff truce with Washington. Notably, exports to the U.S. plunged -33.1% y/y, while shipments to Southeast Asian countries accelerated 22.5%. Imports, meanwhile, grew 1.3% y/y, below expectations (3.0%) and weaker than the 4.1% posted in July. The breakdown showed a rebound in energy purchases, offset by declines in chips and industrial metals, underscoring persistent weakness in construction and domestic demand. Overall, the figures indicate that China’s external trade slowed at the end of August as the temporary boost from the tariff truce with the U.S. faded, although demand in other markets offered some relief to sustain activity in an environment of weak internal consumption and external risks.

Markets and stocks

Futures of major U.S. indices traded slightly higher this morning, in a week marked by key inflation data. Following the weak August jobs report, markets are pricing in a Fed rate cut at the September meeting, with attention focused on Wednesday’s PPI and Thursday’s CPI. In Europe, stocks opened on a positive note as investors await the confidence vote in France, where Prime Minister François Bayrou is widely expected to lose his position, forcing President Macron to appoint a new leader. In Asia, markets closed higher, with the Nikkei up 1.45% after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s resignation.

In commodities, oil prices rebounded after OPEC’s decision to raise production by 137,000 barrels per day starting in October. Meanwhile, gold prices hit a new all-time high, trading at $3,621 per ounce, supported by rate cut expectations and strong central bank demand.

In fixed income, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stood at 4.07%, while the 2-year traded at 3.49%, both at recent lows following the jobs report release.

Corporate news

SpaceX agreed to acquire spectrum licenses from EchoStar for $17 billion in cash and stock, a deal that will allow Musk’s company to offer satellite mobile services more independently.

Robinhood and AppLovin will be added to the S&P 500 on September 22, replacing Caesars Entertainment and MarketAxess. Their shares rose about 7% after the announcement.

Alibaba led a $100 million funding round for Chinese humanoid robot startup X Square Robot, which also unveiled a new AI model for robotics and announced plans to go public in 2026.