Kapital Market Brief | September 4 2025

Top news

·     In Mexico, private consumption and gross fixed investment continue to show weakness.

·     The ADP private employment survey revealed that 54,000 jobs were created in August, practically half of what was observed a month ago. The figures suggest weakness for the non-farm payroll data.

·     In the week ending August 30, initial unemployment insurance claims rebounded to 237,000, above the market consensus expectation of 230,000 and the previous week’s figure of 229,000.

·     Later today, the ISM services index for August will be released, which the market consensus estimates will stand at 51 points.

Economic outlook

In Mexico, private consumption and gross fixed investment continue to show weakness. In June, private consumption rebounded by 0.8%, after falling by -0.9% in May and growing by 1.1% in April, according to seasonally adjusted monthly figures. In annual terms, private consumption grew by 1.1% in the sixth month of the year, showing a decline of -0.7% in domestic goods and growth of 1.7% in services, while imported goods rebounded by 4.4%. On the other hand, gross fixed investment fell by 1.4% m/m in June, after growing by 1.2% in the previous month, according to seasonally adjusted figures. In its annual comparison, investment fell by -6.8%, also according to seasonally adjusted figures. Within this category, construction and the acquisition of machinery and equipment decreased by -0.8% y/y and -1.6% y/y, respectively. Overall, the figures for June were mixed, although with a bias towards weakness, since although consumption showed an upturn, this was mainly due to imported goods, while investment declined again in almost all areas.

Markets and stocks

Futures on the main US indices were trading slightly higher this morning. Investors are digesting the ADP private employment report, which showed the creation of 54,000 jobs in August compared to the 75,000 expected, as well as an increase in weekly unemployment claims to 237,000, maintaining expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month. In Europe, markets were mostly positive, although Jet2 fell sharply after warning of lower profits and Sanofi fell due to weak results in a clinical trial. Finally, in Asia, markets closed mixed.

In the commodities market, oil prices continued to decline, pressured by expectations that OPEC will increase production in October. On the other hand, the price of gold fell to $3,548 per ounce after hitting an all-time high the previous day, amid profit-taking and anticipation of the U.S. nonfarm payroll report.

In fixed income, U.S. Treasury yields continued to decline, with the 10-year rate at 4.19% and the 2-year rate at 3.60%.

Volaris reported a 4.7% year-on-year increase in capacity (ASM) in August, driven by the international segment (+14%), while domestic capacity contracted by 1.4%. The load factor decreased by 2.3 pp due to the increased deployment of seats, although the airline maintains its competitive fare strategy and we expect it to achieve an EBITDAR margin slightly above guidance, supported by exchange rate stability and fuel prices.

Femsa announced an agreement with Raízen to dissolve its joint venture in Brazil (Grupo Nós). The company will retain all OXXO stores and the distribution center in Cajamar, while Raízen will retain the Shell Select stores. The transaction will be cash neutral, and FEMSA will assume the JV’s debt. The company reiterated that OXXO Brazil is a strategic priority and plans to accelerate the expansion of its store network in this highly fragmented market.

Corporate news

Salesforce projects weak sales growth for the third quarter, fueling doubts about how quickly its artificial intelligence tools will be able to generate additional revenue.

Hewlett Packard Enterprise exceeded quarterly estimates with revenues of $9.14 billion (+18% y/y), but warned of pressure on margins in its server business due to high AI chip costs. The company is confident that profits will stabilize and highlighted the integration of Juniper Networks, from which it expects synergies of $600 million over three years.

Goldman Sachs will invest up to $1 billion in T. Rowe Price, acquiring up to 3.5% of its shares on the open market and forming an alliance to offer private equity, credit, and infrastructure products to retail investors and retirement plans.