Kapital Market Brief | September 3 2025

Top news

·     In Mexico, consumer confidence rose to an eight-month high in August.

·     Later today, job openings data for July will be released, with market consensus expecting 7.37 million openings.

·     In the Eurozone, producer prices rose 0.2% y/y in July, following a 0.6% y/y increase in June.

·     Several analysts and academics voiced support for Fed Governor Lisa Cook amid Donald Trump’s attempts to remove her, warning that such actions threaten the independence of the U.S. central bank.

·     President Donald Trump stated he does not intend to lower tariffs on imports from India, despite pressure from U.S. industrial and commercial sectors.

Economic outlook

In Mexico, consumer confidence rose to an eight-month high in August. The Consumer Confidence Index increased by 0.7 points from July to 46.7, its highest level in eight months, though still in pessimistic territory. On an annual comparison, the index fell -0.7 points versus August 2024. Within the components, the most notable improvement was in expectations for household economic conditions over the next 12 months (58.5 points) and for the country’s future situation (48.7 points), while the current assessment of the country also showed a slight increase (41.5 points). Households’ willingness to purchase durable goods rose to 33.3, although the current evaluation of household economic conditions remained virtually unchanged at 51.7 points. Overall, the August reading reflects a rebound in consumer expectations but without altering the indicator’s moderate tone, suggesting that private consumption may continue to show contained behavior in the coming months.

Markets and stocks

U.S. futures traded mixed this morning after several days of volatility. The Nasdaq was boosted by Alphabet after a federal judge allowed the company to keep its Chrome browser, avoiding a forced breakup scenario, though it must share data and limit exclusivity agreements. Apple also advanced after confirmation that it can continue preinstalling Google as the default search engine on iPhones. Meanwhile, investors continued to assess the impact of elevated U.S. fiscal deficits. In Europe, stocks rebounded, while Asian markets closed lower.

In commodities, oil fell more than 1.6%, with Brent at $68 ahead of Sunday’s OPEC meeting, where members will discuss bringing forward production increases. Gold, by contrast, hit a new all-time high above $3,500 per ounce, supported by expectations of Fed rate cuts.

In fixed income, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.28%, the 2-year at 3.65%, and the 30-year hovered near the 5% threshold. Market attention is focused on Friday’s August jobs report.

Corporate news

Alphabet scored a key victory in the biggest U.S. antitrust case in three decades, after a judge rejected the proposal to split the company and sell Chrome. The firm must share search data with rivals and limit exclusivity agreements, but it can continue payments to partners like Apple, preserving much of its business model.

TSMC faces new hurdles in China after the U.S. revoked its authorization to ship equipment to its Nanjing plant. Suppliers will now need individual licenses, creating operational and bureaucratic uncertainty for TSMC and its South Korean peers Samsung and SK Hynix.

Macy’s reported its strongest comparable sales growth in three years and raised annual guidance after a solid Q2, supported by the renovation of 125 key stores and strong results at Bloomingdale’s and Bluemercury. However, the company warned of a more cautious consumer outlook for the remainder of the year.