Kapital Market Brief | September 24 2025

Top news

·     In Mexico, headline inflation rebounded in the first half of September.

·     U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell warned that risks to inflation are tilted upward and employment risks downward, complicating the Fed’s future decisions.

·     Business confidence in Germany unexpectedly fell in September, according to an Ifo institute survey, while economic prospects remained weak.

·     Mexico’s Economy Secretary Marcelo Ebrard said he does not anticipate retaliatory measures from Beijing regarding Mexico’s intention to impose tariffs on China.

Economic outlook

In Mexico, headline inflation rebounded in the first half of September. INEGI reported that the National Consumer Price Index rose 0.18% biweekly, slightly below our 0.20% estimate. Annual inflation accelerated to 3.74% from 3.49% in the previous fortnight. Core inflation, which excludes volatile items such as energy, agricultural products, and government-set prices, increased 0.22% biweekly, bringing the annual rate to 4.26%. Within the core, goods rose 0.23% q/q (4.19% y/y), with food, beverages, and tobacco up 5.30% y/y. Services climbed 0.20% q/q and 4.32% y/y, driven by tuition costs (+3.15% q/q; 5.85% y/y). In contrast, non-core inflation showed greater stability, with just a 0.03% increase for the fortnight and a 2.01% annual advance, far below the 6.73% seen a year earlier. Agricultural prices rose 0.11% q/q (2.96% y/y), while energy and government tariffs fell 0.04% q/q and advanced 1.23% y/y. Overall, Mexico’s headline inflation accelerated in early September, broadly in line with market expectations, edging closer to Banxico’s upper target range limit of 4.0%.

Markets and stocks

In the U.S., futures of the main stock indices were trading higher this morning, supported by a partial rebound in Nvidia and optimism around new artificial intelligence investments. However, caution persisted after Jerome Powell reiterated that asset valuations remain elevated and the path of rate cuts is still uncertain. In Europe, stock markets were mixed, with the defense sector rallying after statements from President Donald Trump about supporting Ukraine and the possibility of NATO shooting down Russian planes violating its airspace. In Asia, markets closed higher. Hong Kong led gains, driven by Alibaba after it announced an increase in AI spending.

In commodities, oil rose on falling U.S. inventories and stalled exports from Kurdistan and Iraq, while the possibility of new sanctions on Russia reinforced expectations of a tighter market. Gold extended its rally, trading near $3,769 per ounce.

In fixed income, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.13%, while the 2-year yield was at 3.58%, both with marginal moves.

Corporate news

Alibaba announced an additional $53 billion investment in artificial intelligence and unveiled its new Qwen3-Max model, boosting its shares in Hong Kong and the U.S.

Shares of Lithium Americas, a Canadian lithium company, advanced after reports that the Trump administration is seeking to acquire up to a 10% stake as part of the renegotiation of a $2.3 billion Department of Energy loan.

Micron Technology issued stronger-than-expected guidance on robust demand for AI memory. The company projects $12.5 billion in revenue and $3.75 earnings per share, highlighting chip shortages as support for pricing.

Disney will raise Disney+ subscription prices starting October 21: the ad-free plan will cost $19 and the ad-supported plan $12. The company aims to strengthen the profitability of its streaming business, targeting $1.3 billion in operating income for this fiscal year.