Kapital Market Brief | September 23 2025

Top news

·     The Mexican economy started the third quarter of the year with weakness.

·     In Mexico, retail sales grew in July.

·     The Eurozone composite PMI for September stood at 51.2 points, above the 51.0 recorded in August and the 51.1 expected by the market.

·     The OECD estimates that the global economy will slow from 3.2% in 2025 to 2.9% in 2026, due to high tariffs in the U.S. and ongoing political uncertainty affecting investment and trade.

Economic outlook

The Mexican economy started the third quarter of the year with weakness. In Mexico, the Global Indicator of Economic Activity (IGAE), a proxy for monthly GDP, fell -0.9% m/m in July 2025, according to seasonally adjusted figures. Breaking down by sector, the primary sector contracted -3.0% m/m, the secondary sector -1.2% m/m, and the tertiary sector -0.4%. On an annual basis, the IGAE dropped -1.2% in July 2025, below the IOAE estimate of -0.2%. Overall, the Mexican economy entered the third quarter with unexpected weakness, suggesting that quarterly growth could be negative.

In Mexico, retail sales grew in July. INEGI reported that retail sales increased 0.1% m/m in July, according to seasonally adjusted figures. On an annual basis, sales rose 2.2% in the seventh month of the year. Within the July data, online and catalog sales stood out with a 20.7% surge, while groceries, food, beverages, and tobacco declined (-0.3%), and self-service and department stores grew (3.3%). Overall, goods consumption continues to show resilience; however, the economy as a whole remains weak.

Markets and stocks

Futures of major U.S. indices remained slightly higher after the record highs reached in the previous session. Enthusiasm around artificial intelligence, fueled by Nvidia’s investment in OpenAI, continues to support risk appetite, although caution persists due to high valuations and anticipation of Jerome Powell’s speech. In Europe, stock markets advanced, while in Asia markets closed in negative territory. Japan remained closed for a holiday.

In commodities, oil rebounded slightly after a preliminary agreement between the Iraqi federal government and the Kurdish region to restart a key pipeline, partially restoring supply to the market. However, OPEC’s excess production and the slowdown in global demand continue to act as a drag. Gold, on the other hand, maintained a strong rally and reached a new record high.

In fixed income, U.S. Treasury bonds showed slight downward moves, with the 10-year yield at 4.13% and the 2-year at 3.59%. The market awaits Powell’s signals and the release of the PCE index at the end of the week.

Grupo México Transportes (GMXT) will allocate more than MXN$14 billion (approx. US$762 million) to delist its shares from the Mexican Stock Exchange. The railroad operator launched a tender offer for 8.95% of its outstanding share capital at MXN$35.99 per share, valid until October 20. Grupo Carso, which holds 15.24% of GMXT, will not participate in the operation and will maintain its stake.

Corporate news

Nvidia and OpenAI announced an agreement under which the former will invest up to US$100 billion to develop data centers with 10 gigawatts of capacity, equipped with Nvidia chips. The goal is to secure the infrastructure needed to sustain large-scale AI growth, in what is considered the most ambitious project of its kind to date.

Boeing is in the final phase of negotiations with China for what has been described as a “huge” aircraft order, according to the U.S. ambassador in Beijing. The deal, which could cover hundreds of planes, would be key in efforts to improve trade relations between the two nations and would represent Boeing’s first major contract with China since 2017.