Kapital Market Brief | September 22 2025

Top news·     The People’s Bank of China decided to keep its benchmark lending rates unchanged in September, marking the fourth consecutive month without adjustments.·     Jerome Powell and other Federal Reserve officials will deliver speeches this week, which could provide hints about future monetary policy moves following the recent rate cut in the United States.·     The Trump administration imposed a $100,000 fee on H-1B visas, raising alarm among foreign workers and students, particularly in technology sectors that rely heavily on these permits.·     The International Monetary Fund raised its 2025 growth forecast for Mexico to 1.0%, up from the previous 0.2%. For 2026, the institution expects GDP growth to accelerate to 1.5%.   Economic outlookThe People’s Bank of China decided to keep its benchmark lending rates unchanged in September, marking the fourth consecutive month without adjustments. In its latest policy decision, the central bank maintained the one-year loan prime rate at 3.0% and the five-year rate at 3.5%, both at historic lows and in line with market expectations. The move followed August data showing a significant slowdown, with industrial production and retail sales growing at their weakest pace in nearly a year, underscoring weak domestic demand and ongoing adjustments in the property sector. However, exports have remained relatively resilient, and easing trade tensions with the United States have provided some external relief. Against this backdrop, authorities opted for caution after earlier cuts, while analysts anticipate potential further easing in the fourth quarter if deflationary pressures persist and consumption fails to recover. The one-year rate serves as a benchmark for most corporate and consumer loans, while the five-year rate underpins mortgages; both are at their lowest levels since being adopted as key policy rates in 2019.Markets and stocksU.S. equity futures traded lower this morning after a week in which the Dow Jones and S&P 500 hit fresh highs following the Federal Reserve’s first rate cut since December. The lack of progress in Congress on funding the government, with the September 30 deadline approaching, added to investor caution. In Europe, markets traded slightly lower, led by the auto sector, after Porsche cut its 2025 guidance and delayed electric vehicle launches due to weaker-than-expected demand. In Asia, sentiment was broadly positive, though technology shares came under pressure following the new $100,000 H-1B visa fee in the United States.In commodities, oil prices edged lower, while gold climbed to a new record above $3,726 per ounce, supported by expectations of further Fed rate cuts and strong safe-haven demand.In fixed income, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stood at 4.13%, while the 2-year yield hovered around 3.57%, with markets awaiting the release of the PCE inflation index later this week.Corporate newsPfizer agreed to acquire biotech firm Metsera for $4.9 billion in cash, with a potential total value of up to $7.3 billion tied to milestone achievements. The deal aims to strengthen Pfizer’s obesity drug portfolio after setbacks with its own treatments.Compass and Anywhere Real Estate announced a $1.6 billion all-stock merger, creating the largest residential brokerage in the U.S. with an enterprise value of about $10 billion. Shares of Anywhere surged more than 50% on the news, while Compass slipped nearly 9%.Porsche shares fell more than 8% in Europe after cutting its 2025 profit outlook and delaying electric vehicle launches due to weaker demand. Volkswagen, its largest shareholder, also declined about 7.7%.