Kapital Market Brief | September 17 2025

Top news

·     The U.S. Federal Reserve is preparing to announce a 25-basis-point cut in its benchmark rate, bringing it to a range of 4.00–4.25%.

·     U.S. President Donald Trump began his State visit to the United Kingdom, marked by protocol events and protests. He is expected to address trade, defense, and technology cooperation with the British government.

·     Mexico and the U.S. began a consultation process under the USMCA framework to resolve trade differences. The negotiation aims to avoid formal disputes and maintain stability in the bilateral relationship.

·     The Timely Indicator of Private Consumption (IOPC) estimates that in July and August 2025 household consumption declined by -0.7% year-over-year.

·     The Bank of Canada is set to cut its interest rate by 25 bps, responding to an economic slowdown and lower inflationary pressures, following the global trend of monetary easing.

Economic outlook

The U.S. Federal Reserve is preparing to announce a 25-basis-point cut in its benchmark rate, bringing it to a range of 4.00–4.25%. Beyond the adjustment itself, markets will be paying close attention to the updated dot plot projections and to officials’ assessment of the economy under the Trump administration. The backdrop is complex: on one hand, labor indicators are showing signs of fatigue, with slowing job creation raising the risk of higher unemployment; on the other, retail sales have surprised to the upside, reflecting resilience in consumption and complicating the narrative of broad weakness. Adding to this is political pressure. President Trump has intensified calls for more aggressive cuts, coinciding with a reshuffle on the Fed Board following the arrival of Stephen Miran and ongoing legal tensions surrounding Governor Lisa Cook. While the institution maintains a clear mandate of independence, investors are watching closely to what extent the official narrative on interest rates may align with White House objectives. On expectations, markets are already pricing in several additional cuts for the remainder of 2025, while in June the Committee’s median forecast pointed to only two. The Fed’s dilemma is avoiding excessive easing that could reignite inflationary pressures, in an environment where the return to the 2% target has not yet been consolidated, while at the same time responding to an economy showing early signs of cooling. The result is a monetary policy path marked by greater uncertainty and a growing risk that upcoming moves will be conditioned as much by macroeconomic data as by political dynamics in Washington.

Markets and stocks

Futures of major U.S. equity indexes were trading slightly higher this morning. The market awaits the Federal Reserve’s policy decision, where a 25-basis-point cut is widely expected. Meanwhile, Nvidia shares slipped before the opening after reports that China banned its top tech firms from purchasing the company’s chips, while its CEO stated they will only be able to operate in countries that allow them. In Europe, markets were mixed. In Asia, the Nikkei surpassed 45,000 points for the first time before closing at 44,790.

In commodities, oil prices corrected lower, with Brent at $68.2 per barrel and WTI at $64.2, pressured by expectations of higher OPEC supply, though geopolitical tensions in Russia and Ukraine continue to provide support. Gold retreated from its $3,703 per ounce high, trading at $3,677 on profit-taking.

In fixed income, U.S. Treasury yields held steady, with the 10-year at 4.02% and the 2-year at 3.52%, as markets await the Fed’s decision and Jerome Powell’s press conference.

Grupo Carso announced that through its subsidiary CICSA, in consortium with FCC Construcción, it was awarded the contract for the design and construction of 111 km of the Saltillo–Nuevo Laredo Passenger Train, covering segments 13 and 14. The contract is valued at MXN 31.844 billion, with each company holding a 50% stake. Construction will begin on September 30 and has a timeline of 960 calendar days.

Corporate news

StubHub raised $800 million in its IPO, pricing shares at $23.50 and reaching a valuation of $8.6 billion.

Apple reported a 6% drop in iPhone sales in China ahead of the iPhone 17 launch, with a 12% market share against local rivals leading the sector.

Eli Lilly presented full results of its obesity pill, which showed an average weight loss of 11.2% in patients, potentially expanding access to treatment compared with injectable versions.

TikTok reached a preliminary agreement for its U.S. operations to be acquired by a consortium including Oracle, Andreessen Horowitz, and Silver Lake. The plan will reduce ByteDance’s stake to below 20% to comply with national security law and allow the app to continue operating in the country.