Kapital Market Brief | September 15 2025

Top news

·     In China, August economic indicators confirmed a sharper loss of momentum, reflecting weakness in both industrial production and consumption.

·     Members of the special committee in the U.S. demand that any new trade agreement with China include binding measures to reduce overproduction in industries such as steel and solar panels.

·     The U.S. is sending a delegation to India to discuss potential trade agreements, seeking to strengthen regional alliances and diversify export markets.

·     During his visit to London, Donald Trump will prioritize reaching a nuclear deal with the United Kingdom, which would serve as a prelude to agreements in areas such as technology and whisky, within the framework of strengthening bilateral relations.

Economic outlook

In China, August economic indicators confirmed a sharper loss of momentum, reflecting weakness in both industrial production and consumption.  Industrial production grew only 5.2% year-on-year, its slowest pace in twelve months and below the consensus forecast (5.8% prev.). Similarly, retail sales expanded 3.4% y/y, marking their lowest level since November 2024 and slowing from the 3.7% recorded in July. Meanwhile, fixed asset investment in the first eight months of the year increased just 0.5% y/y, well below market expectations and the previously reported 1.6%. Weak domestic demand, the deterioration of the real estate sector, and trade uncertainty with the U.S. — which maintains tariffs of up to 55% — continue to weigh on the performance of the world’s second-largest economy. In this context, analysts expect economic growth to slow to 4.5% in the third quarter and 4.0% in the fourth, implying an expansion of around 4.6% in 2025, below the official 5.0% target.

Markets and stocks

Futures of major U.S. indexes were mostly higher this morning, boosted by expectations that the Federal Reserve will announce the start of a rate-cutting cycle on Wednesday. In addition, trade negotiations in Madrid between the U.S. and China added optimism, after Donald Trump hinted at direct talks with Xi Jinping and suggested a possible deal to keep TikTok operating in the U.S. On the other hand, European markets started the week higher, with attention focused on upcoming U.K. inflation data and the Bank of England’s meeting. In Asia, the Kospi reached a new all-time high after the South Korean government ruled out raising taxes on stock investments.

In the commodities market, oil extended its gains amid Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy infrastructure. The possibility that the U.S. will toughen sanctions against Moscow if NATO backs the move adds pressure on global supply. Gold, meanwhile, showed marginal changes ahead of the Fed’s meeting.

In fixed income, Treasury yields remained contained, with the 10-year at 4.04% and the 2-year at 3.53%. The market anticipates a 25 bps cut this week and the possibility of further adjustments in October and December.

Corporate news

Tesla reported that Elon Musk purchased company shares worth approximately $1 billion, marking his largest open-market purchase since 2020.

Nvidia was flagged by China’s regulatory authority, which concluded that its 2020 acquisition of Mellanox violated antitrust provisions.