Daily Brief | July 22 2025

The Top • The Timely Indicator of Economic Activity (IOAE) estimates a slight improvement in the Mexican economy at the start of 2025. • The US and Russia have begun negotiations to end the war in Ukraine without the participation of Kyiv or the European block.  • Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller stated that his “baseline” view is

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El Top ● El Indicador Oportuno de Actividad Económica (IOAE) estima una ligera mejoría en la economía mexicana al inicio del 2025. ● Estados Unidos y Rusia inician negociaciones para poner fin a la guerra en Ucrania sin la participación de Kiev ni la Unión Europea. ● El gobernador de la Reserva Federal, Christopher Waller, afirmó que su

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The Top • Russia announced it will meet with senior US officials on Tuesday to discuss ending the war in Ukraine. • Germany’s economy contracted for the second consecutive year in 2024, marking its worst performance in two decades. With just days before Sunday’s general elections, the country is engaged in a heated debate over how to

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El Top ● Rusia anunció que se reunirá el martes con altos funcionarios de EE.UU. para tratar el fin de la guerra en Ucrania. ● La economía de Alemania se contrajo por segundo año consecutivo en 2024, registrando su peor desempeño en dos décadas. A pocos días de las elecciones generales del domingo, el país vive un

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How´s the Trade Balance Doing? – 2024 In 2024, Mexico’s trade balance closed with a deficit worth $8.212 billion USD, significantly higher than the $5.470 billion deficit recorded in 2023. This widening deficit signals a combination of factors: Throughout 2024, total exports reached $617.1 billion, marking an annual growth rate of 4.1%. This performance was

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Economic Environment In the US, retail sales unexpectedly fell in the first month of 2025. In January, retail sales declined by -0.9% m/m, far below expectations of a -0.1% m/m drop and sharply down from the 0.7% m/m increase in the previous month. Excluding volatile categories such as autos and gasoline, retail sales fell by

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● En Estados Unidos, las ventas al menudeo cayeron sorpresivamente en el primer mes del 2025. ● Más tarde, se darán a conocer las cifras de la producción industrial en EE.UU. correspondientes al mes de enero de 2025 en donde se anticipa un crecimiento de la actividad industrial en 0.3% m/m. ● La economía de la zona euro

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Economic Environment In the Eurozone, industrial production contracted more than expected in December. The latest data for the block showed a sharp 1.1% m/m decline in industrial activity (prev. +0.4%). This negative performance was mainly driven by a 2.6% drop in capital goods, a 1.9% decline in intermediate goods, and a 0.7% contraction in durable

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● En la Eurozona, la producción industrial se contrajo más de lo esperado en diciembre. ● En Estados Unidos, los precios al productor PPI aumentaron con fuerza en enero de 2025. ● El presidente de EE. UU., Donald Trump, anunció que impondrá aranceles recíprocos, a partir del miércoles por la noche, a todos los países que apliquen aranceles

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The Top • In the US, CPI inflation for the first month of 2025 came in above market consensus estimates. • Donald Trump’s trade advisors are set to finalize a proposal as soon as Wednesday for reciprocal tariffs on all countries that impose tariffs on US imports. • Bank of France President François Villeroy de Galhau reaffirmed on Wednesday that US President

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