Daily Brief | June 3 2025

Top News

·     Year over year consumer inflation figures in the Euroarea fell in May.

·     The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) lowered its growth estimates for the global economy from 3.1% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026 to 2.9% for both years. For Mexico, they estimate that the economy will grow by 0.4% and 1.1% for the same periods.

·     On July 8, the 90-day pause will end, and reciprocal tariffs in the US will return to their original levels. Currently, most economies face a 10% tariff on their shipments to the US.

·     The ISM manufacturing index stood at 48.5 points in May, well below the market consensus expectation of 49.5 and below April’s reading of 48.7 units.

·     Mexico received $4.761 billion in remittances in April, representing a year-on-year decline of 12.1% compared to the same month last year. In the last twelve months, remittances have accumulated a balance of $64.26 billion. 

Economic Outlook

Year over year consumer inflation figures in the Euroarea fell in May. Annual inflation in the European bloc stood at 1.9% in the fifth month of the year, slightly below the consensus estimate of 2.0% and April’s reading of 2.2%. By component and for May 2025, food, alcoholic beverages, and tobacco showed inflation of 3.3% y/y, services at 3.2% y/y, non-energy industrial goods at 0.6% y/y, and energy at -3.6% y/y. Core inflation stood at 2.4% in May, also below the consensus expectation of 2.5%. Meanwhile, annual inflation in the main economies of the European bloc fell between April and May. For example, in Germany it went from 2.2% to 2.1%, in Spain from 2.2% to 1.9%, in France from 0.9% to 0.6%, and in Italy from 2.0% to 1.9%. Overall, Euroarea inflation figures support the scenario of an additional interest rate cut by the European Central Bank, which is expected to cut the deposit rate by 25 basis points this week.

Markets and Stocks

Futures in the United States show mixed movements; the market shows growing concerns about economic growth after the OECD cut its growth forecast for the United States from 2.2% to 1.6%. 

In Europe, markets remained mostly in negative territory, with the Stoxx 600 falling 0.2%. 

On the other hand, Asian markets showed mixed movements after a report revealed that manufacturing activity in China contracted in May at the fastest pace since September 2022. 

As for commodities, oil prices are rising amid concerns about supply, as Iran prepares to reject a proposed nuclear deal with the United States, while production in Canada has been affected by wildfires. 

Gold is retreating from nearly four-week highs. A slight rebound in the dollar put pressure on the metal, although uncertainty surrounding the trade agreement between the United States and China kept investors cautious. 

In Mexico, the main index is up, and the dollar is at 19.24 after closing at 19.21 yesterday.

Corporate News

• Dollar General shares rose more than 10% after the company improved its annual sales guidance. 

• Hims and Hers Health rose more than 5% after announcing the acquisition of its European counterpart Zava. The transaction will increase the active customer base by approximately 50%.

• Constellation Energy shares soared 9% after Meta signed a 20-year agreement to purchase nuclear power from Constellation’s Clinton Clean Energy facility, beginning in June 2027.