Daily Brief | June 17 2025

Top News

·     In the United States, retail sales fell once again in the fifth month of the year.

·     Later today, industrial production figures for May will be released. Consensus estimates point to a modest increase of 0.1%.

·     President Donald Trump stated that he wants a “real end” to the nuclear dispute with Iran and indicated that he may send U.S. officials to Tehran.

·     The Bank of Japan left interest rates unchanged and decided to continue reducing its balance sheet, although it anticipates doing so at a slower pace starting next year.

·     The U.S. and the United Kingdom signed the previously announced trade agreement, thereby reducing tariffs on imports from the latter in sectors such as automobiles and aerospace; however, tariffs on steel and aluminum remain unresolved. 

Economic Outlook

In the United States, retail sales declined once again in the fifth month of the year. In May, retail sales fell by -0.9% m/m, below the consensus estimate of -0.7% m/m and the previous month’s figure of -0.1% m/m. Excluding the most volatile components, such as automobiles and gasoline, retail sales dropped by -0.3% m/m in the fifth month of the year. On an annual basis, May retail sales grew by 3.3%, while sales excluding automobiles and gasoline rose by 4.6%. Within the annual comparison of retail sales, gasoline station sales fell by -6.9%, while online sales increased by 8.3%. Overall, retail sales weakened for the second consecutive month, after having grown strongly in March due to front-loaded purchases ahead of tariffs. In this regard, improved consumer confidence is expected to enhance the outlook for the coming months.

Markets and Stocks

Futures for the main U.S. stock indices are trading lower this Tuesday, following gains observed yesterday. Investors remain focused on the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran and are digesting the weak retail sales data. In Asia and Europe, equity markets also traded lower. On the geopolitical front, President Trump left the G7 summit in Canada early to address the crisis in the Middle East. On social media, he called for the immediate evacuation of Tehran, while G7 leaders are discussing a possible ceasefire. On the economic front, U.S. retail sales for May fell by 0.9%, below the consensus estimate of -0.7%, suggesting a cooling in consumption amid heightened international uncertainty. Additionally, the market remains attentive to tomorrow’s announcement and, most importantly, the message from the Fed following its monetary policy meeting.

In fixed income, Treasury yields are falling. The 10-year bond declines to 4.42% and the 2-year to 3.95%, amid global nervousness and in anticipation of the Fed’s monetary policy decision.

Oil prices are rebounding due to geopolitical tensions: both WTI and Brent were up by around 2%. Gold is also rising on increased safe-haven demand.

In Mexico, the exchange rate of the peso against the dollar stood at 18.96, after closing at 18.92 yesterday.

Funo signed an agreement for the internalization of its advisory and representation contracts, through an arrangement with the owners of said contracts, which includes a total consideration of 10,468 million pesos payable with real estate assets owned by Funo. The consideration is based on a payment currency valued at 1.0x its book value. We consider the announcement to be positive, as although this action had been announced over a year ago, it had not yet materialized.

Corporate News

à Companies in the solar energy sector suffered sharp declines after the Senate version of President Trump’s tax proposal included a gradual phase-out of renewable energy incentives. Shares of Enphase Energy, First Solar, Sunrun, and SolarEdge Technologies fell significantly.

à Microsoft shares declined following a Wall Street Journal report which, citing sources familiar with the matter, indicated that tensions between Microsoft and OpenAI regarding their artificial intelligence partnership have reached a critical point.

à T-Mobile US shares declined after Bloomberg and Reuters reported that SoftBank sold 21.5 million shares of T-Mobile at a price of 224 dollars per share. According to the reports, SoftBank raised approximately 4.8 billion dollars.