Daily Brief | June 12 2025

Top News

·     In the United States, May producer prices rose less than market consensus estimates.

·     U.S. President Donald Trump announced that in the coming weeks, he will send letters to trade partners introducing new unilateral tariffs.

·     For the week ending June 7, 2025, initial jobless claims in the U.S. stood at 248,000 (240,000 expected), unchanged from the prior week when 248,000 were also reported.

·     Economic activity in the United Kingdom sharply declined in April (-0.3% vs 0.2% prev.), reflecting the impact of President Trump’s announcement on broad tariffs and the expiration of a housing-related fiscal stimulus.

·     Germany’s economy is expected to grow this year after two consecutive years of contraction, according to four economic institutes on Thursday, which also raised their forecasts for 2025 and 2026. 

Economic Outlook

In the United States, May producer prices rose less than expected. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that producer price inflation for May increased by 0.1% m/m on a seasonally adjusted basis, above the upwardly revised -0.2% m/m for April but below market expectations of 0.2% m/m.

Breaking down the data, May prices for final demand services rose 0.1% m/m, while goods prices increased 0.2% m/m. Core PPI, which excludes food and energy, also rose by 0.1% m/m, seasonally adjusted. On a 12-month basis, headline PPI stood at 2.6% (vs 2.5% prev.), and core PPI at 2.7% (vs 2.9% prev.).

Overall, U.S. producer prices rose less than expected in May, held back by lower costs in services like airfares. These numbers support the case for the Federal Reserve to maintain its benchmark interest rate in the 4.25%–4.50% range in its upcoming decision.

Markets and Stocks

In the U.S., futures for major stock indices were trading lower following President Donald Trump’s statement that he would impose unilateral tariffs within two weeks, ahead of the July 9 deadline. In Europe, markets were broadly down amid rising caution over the outlook for global trade. BE Semiconductor and Tesco posted gains, while the travel sector took a hit following an Air India plane crash. Asian markets had mixed performance. Investor sentiment was weighed down by Trump’s confirmation of tariffs of up to 55% on Chinese imports.

In commodities, oil prices fell after Wednesday’s sharp gains, amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and speculation about a possible Israeli military action against Iran. Gold surged to $3,388 per ounce, driven by dollar weakness, while silver and platinum also moved higher.

In fixed income, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury held at 4.35%, while the 2-year yield stood at 3.88%.

In Mexico, futures on the IPC were up 0.43%. Meanwhile, the exchange rate hovered around 18.89 pesos per dollar, compared to 18.92 in the previous session.

Grupo México Transportes has called an Extraordinary General Shareholders’ Meeting for June 27, where it will propose delisting its shares from the National Securities Registry and the Mexican Stock Exchange. This would mark the end of its trading history since its debut on November 9, 2017.

Corporate News

• Shares of Boeing were down following the crash of an Air India 787 Dreamliner, which went down shortly after takeoff with 242 people on board. While the cause is still under investigation, the incident reignites concerns over the safety of its fleet.

• Oracle reported revenue and earnings above expectations and anticipates strong growth in its cloud business for 2026.

• AI company CoreWeave confirmed it will provide computing capacity to Google Cloud as part of the partnership between Alphabet and OpenAI.