Daily Brief | July 31 2025

Top News

·     In the US, PCE inflation rose in June.

·     In the United States, President Trump announced several changes in copper trade policy for Brazil and de minimis imports.

·     Yesterday, the Federal Reserve decided to keep interest rates unchanged in a divided decision, with two governors, Waller and Bowman, voting to cut rates by 25 basis points.

·     In the week ending July 26, initial claims for unemployment insurance stood at 218,000, below the consensus expectation of 224,000 and slightly above the previous week’s 217,000.

Economic Outlook

In the US, PCE inflation rose in June. In the United States, personal disposable income and personal consumption expenditure grew by 0.3% in nominal terms for the sixth month of the year. Meanwhile, annual personal consumption expenditure (PCE) inflation, an indicator for the Federal Reserve’s inflation target, stood at 2.6% in June, up from 2.4% the previous month and above the market consensus estimate of 2.5%. The core index, which excludes energy and food, stood at 2.8% in the sixth month of the year, the same level as reported a month ago. In their monthly variation, overall and core PCE inflation rose by 0.3%, both recording their highest increases since February. In this sense, the inflation figures support the scenario of maintaining the pause in the Fed’s interest rate cut cycle for longer, especially since the durable goods category registered annual inflation of 0.9%, which is normally deflationary.

In the United States, President Trump announced several changes in copper trade policy for Brazil and de minimis imports. Yesterday, the US president announced that imports of copper in semi-finished products and some derivatives will face a 50% tariff starting August 1, clarifying that it will only apply to the copper content in the products, it will not be cumulative with the automotive sector, and copper materials (such as minerals, concentrates, cathodes, and anodes) and scrap will not be subject to tariffs. In addition, an additional 40% tariff was announced for Brazil, bringing the country’s total tariff to 50%, due to Brazilian government practices and policies that could affect US national security. This measure will take effect on August 6. Finally, the tariff exemption for de minimis imports (or those valued at less than $800) is suspended for all countries, and certain rules will be applied depending on each country’s tariff rate. This tariff announcement will take effect on August 29. In this regard, while the measure regarding copper eases fears of supply chain disruptions to some extent, as the reference price plummeted 20% after the announcement, the rest of the measures reverse the agreements and the atmosphere of improvement

Markets and Stocks

Futures on the major US indices were up this morning, driven by strong results from Microsoft and Meta, whose shares rose as much as 12% before the opening bell. This comes after the Federal Reserve’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged, albeit with two dissenting votes. Jerome Powell reiterated that no decision has been made regarding a possible cut in September. In Europe, markets were mixed after better-than-expected inflation data in Germany. In Asia, markets closed mixed amid the Bank of Japan’s decision to keep its benchmark rate unchanged and uncertainty over new US tariffs on products from South Korea and India.

In the commodities market, oil remained slightly down amid an unexpected increase in US crude inventories, new sanctions against Iran, and tariff warnings to China for purchasing Russian oil. Gold rose 0.9%, trading at $3,305 per ounce, supported by the weak dollar and interest in safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, the copper market suffered its biggest intraday drop in recent history after President Trump announced that the 50% tariffs will apply only to semi-finished products, excluding refined copper. This measure reversed a strong premium for US copper over international prices.

In fixed income, US Treasury yields fell after the inflation data. The 10-year bond stood at 4.35% and the 2-year bond at 3.93%.

Asur announced the acquisition of URW Airports, LLC for $295 million, marking its strategic entry into the commercial concessions business at US airports. The transaction gives it a presence in key terminals at Los Angeles, Chicago, and New York airports, strengthening its international diversification. The financing will be carried out with cash and debt.

Corporate News

– Figma debuted on the New York Stock Exchange with strong demand after setting its IPO price above the expected range at $33 per share.

– Meta reported solid results in Q2 2025, driven by a 22% rebound in revenue and efficiency improvements thanks to its artificial intelligence infrastructure. The biggest catalyst was the announcement that its GenAI system is already boosting advertising conversions. Despite certain regulatory risks in Europe, the market is focusing on the potential for increased monetization and the expectation of higher returns on its CapEx investments.

– Microsoft significantly exceeded revenue and earnings expectations, thanks to strong growth in Azure (+39%) and higher per-user revenue in its Copilot-driven productivity products. Optimistic guidance for the next quarter and a higher-than-expected operating margin reinforced the long-term view of the company’s sustainable growth.

– Comcast reported a further loss of broadband customers, but its results exceeded expectations thanks to growth in its mobile business and a significant boost in its content and theme park divisions.