Daily Brief | July 30 2025

Top News

·     Mexico’s economy advanced in 2Q25, driven by gains in both industry and services.

·     In the United States, the economy rebounded during the second quarter of 2025.

·     The Federal Reserve is set to announce its monetary policy decision today, and is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged, despite pressure from President Trump for aggressive cuts.

·     Eurozone economic growth held up better than expected in 2Q25 (1.4% y/y vs. 1.2% expected), suggesting that businesses are adapting to trade uncertainty, potentially reducing the need for further rate cuts by the European Central Bank.

Economic Outlook

Mexico’s economy advanced in 2Q25, driven by gains in both industry and services. GDP grew 0.7% q/q in the second quarter of 2025, based on preliminary seasonally adjusted figures. The report came in above market consensus, which anticipated a 0.2% q/q increase. Growth was supported by a 0.8% expansion in secondary activities (industry) and a 0.7% rise in tertiary activities (services), which offset a -1.3% decline in the primary sector. On an annual basis, and using original figures, the economy grew just 0.1% in the second quarter. By sector, primary activities expanded 4.1%, while secondary activities contracted -1.5%, and tertiary activities rose 0.7%. Overall, the pace of growth was modest and continues to reflect underlying structural weakness. However, the rebound in industry and services helped prevent a deeper economic stagnation.

In the United States, the economy rebounded during the second quarter of 2025. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) advance estimate, GDP grew 3.0% on a seasonally adjusted annualized quarterly basis, following a -0.5% contraction in the first quarter. The rebound exceeded market expectations (2.5% consensus) and was largely driven by a sharp -30.3% drop in imports, which had surged 37.9% in the previous quarter due to front-loaded purchases by businesses and consumers ahead of newly announced tariffs. Consumer spending also accelerated, rising 1.4% (vs. 0.5% in 1Q25), supported by stronger goods consumption (2.2%) and a rebound in services. Government spending returned to positive territory (0.4% vs. -0.6% prior), while fixed investment slowed sharply (0.4% vs. 7.6%), with notable contractions in structures (-10.3%) and residential investment (-4.6%), and a significant deceleration in equipment spending (4.8% vs. 23.7%). Exports declined -1.8%, marking their largest drop since 2Q23, and private inventory accumulation subtracted 3.17 percentage points from overall growth.

Markets and Stocks

U.S. equity futures were trading slightly higher this morning, as markets await the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy announcement. The consensus anticipates no change to the benchmark interest rate, with attention focused on the tone of Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks. On the trade front, uncertainty persists due to a lack of meaningful progress in negotiations with China ahead of Friday’s deadline for new tariffs.

In Europe, markets were trading mixed as investors digested new corporate earnings. Notably, Adidas shares fell after reporting a negative impact from U.S. tariffs and weaker-than-expected sales. In Asia, markets also closed mixed.

In commodities, oil prices were edging higher despite expectations of stricter U.S. measures against Russia if no progress is made in the Ukraine conflict. Analysts warn that potential restrictions on Russian exports could sustain geopolitical risk in energy markets. Gold, meanwhile, was down 0.4% as investors await clearer signals on the future path of monetary policy.

In fixed income, U.S. Treasury yields rose following stronger-than-expected GDP data. The 10-year yield climbed to 4.36%, while the 2-year note stood at 3.91%.

Grupo México reported a 3.7% y/y decline in consolidated revenue, while EBITDA fell 1.2% y/y. However, the EBITDA margin improved by 130 basis points. Results came in slightly above our estimates, offering a neutral reading of the report. A positive highlight was the continued decline in the copper cash cost, which dropped to $0.93/lb—a 9.9% y/y reduction—helping to support profitability despite the revenue contraction.

Corporate News

– Starbucks reported that its restructuring plan is progressing faster than expected, despite marking its sixth consecutive quarter of same-store sales declines. CEO Brian Niccol highlighted positive signs in the U.S. market, including increased customer engagement, improved in-store experience, and a recovery in traffic at university locations.

– HSBC posted quarterly results below expectations, impacted by impairment charges linked to its exposure in China and lower revenue following asset sales. Although the bank announced a $3 billion share buyback program, its cautious tone on the macroeconomic outlook and ongoing profitability pressures weighed on investor sentiment.

– Palo Alto Networks announced the acquisition of CyberArk in a deal valued at approximately $25 billion.

– Novo Nordisk once again cut its full-year guidance, citing weaker-than-expected sales growth in the U.S. The company also announced a CEO transition, adding uncertainty at a time of intense competitive pressure and growing skepticism over the sustainability of its leadership in the obesity treatment market.