Daily Brief | July 25 2025

Top News

·     U.S. durable goods orders declined in June due to a drop in aviation spending.

·     The U.S. composite PMI for July came in at 54.6 points, above the 52.9 recorded in June. Within the data, the manufacturing PMI fell from 52.9 to 49.5 between June and July, while the services PMI rose from 52.9 to 55.2.

·     China’s fiscal revenues fell by -0.3% in the first six months of the year compared to the previous year, according to the Ministry of Finance on Friday, maintaining the same rate of decline seen between January and May.

·     The International Monetary Fund reached an agreement with Argentine officials for a potential approval of $2 billion in loans. 

Economic Outlook

U.S. durable goods orders declined in June due to a drop in aviation spending. In the U.S., durable goods orders fell by -9.3% m/m in June, following a 16.5% m/m surge the previous month. However, excluding volatile categories such as transportation, orders rose 0.2% in the sixth month of 2025, based on seasonally adjusted figures. Meanwhile, capital goods orders excluding defense and aircraft dropped by -0.7% m/m. On an annual basis, durable goods orders grew by 12.6% in June, and by 4.3% when excluding transportation. Additionally, orders excluding defense and aircraft rose by 5.0% y/y. Overall, the decline in durable goods orders was driven mainly by a sharp drop in transportation spending, especially in aviation, while the less volatile components — excluding defense — continued to grow at a solid pace.

Markets and Stocks

U.S. equity index futures are trading little changed on Friday, following a positive week that pushed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to new all-time highs. Thursday marked another record-setting day for the market, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching new intraday and closing highs. All three major indices are on track to end the week with gains: the S&P 500 is up 1.1%, the Nasdaq 1.0%, and the Dow close to 1.0% for the week. Market optimism has been fueled by a strong earnings season, with over 82% of the 169 S&P 500 companies that have reported so far beating expectations. Additionally, recent trade deals between the U.S. and partners like Japan and Indonesia have bolstered risk appetite. Investors are now watching closely for any further announcements ahead of the August 1 deadline related to new tariffs.

Markets are also focused on next week’s Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting, where interest rates are expected to remain unchanged in the 4.25%–4.50% range.

In fixed income, U.S. Treasury yields are rising. The 10-year note stands at 4.42%, while the 2-year note is at 3.93%.

Oil prices are up on Friday, supported by optimism over a potential trade agreement between the U.S. and the European Union, as well as reports suggesting that Russia plans to restrict gasoline exports to most countries. In contrast, gold is trading lower, pressured by the strengthening U.S. dollar and progress in U.S.-EU trade talks, which has reduced demand for safe-haven assets.

During 2Q25, Fibra Uno reported a 10.2% y/y increase in total revenues, reaching MXN $7.505 billion, driven by higher rental income across all segments. Net Operating Income rose by 9.0% y/y to MXN $5.578 billion, while Funds from Operations grew 7.3%. Results were in line with expectations, making the report’s implication neutral.

Corporate News

– Intel announced a 15% workforce reduction and cuts to its chip factory construction plans as part of a strategic restructuring focused on artificial intelligence. Despite this, the company exceeded revenue expectations in the second quarter.

– Paramount rose after receiving approval from the Federal Communications Commission for its $8 billion merger with Skydance Media. The deal marks a significant step in the consolidation of CBS’s parent group amid ongoing transformation in the media and entertainment industry.