Daily Brief | July 17 2025

Top News

·     In the United States, retail sales rebounded in June.

·     For the week ending July 12, initial jobless claims came in at 221,000, below the consensus estimate of 235,000 and the previous week’s figure of 227,000.

·     Japan held talks on Thursday with U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick to avoid a 25% tariff set to take effect on August 1, unless an agreement is reached.

·     Japan’s exports declined by -0.5% year-over-year, marking two consecutive months of declines due to the impact of U.S. tariffs. A month earlier, imports had fallen by -1.7% year-over-year. 

Economic Outlook

In the United States, retail sales rebounded in June. During the month, retail sales grew by 0.6% month-over-month, significantly above the market consensus estimate of 0.1% and recovering from the previous month’s -0.9%. Excluding more volatile components such as autos and gasoline, retail sales also increased by 0.6% m/m in June. On an annual basis, retail sales rose by 3.6%, while sales excluding autos and gasoline increased by 4.1%. Within the annual comparison, gasoline station sales declined by -4.4% (previously -5.8%), while online sales grew by 4.5% (previously 7.7%). Overall, retail sales exceeded market expectations; however, it is important to note that these figures are expressed in nominal terms, so part of the increase may be attributed to higher prices. Additionally, the deceleration in online sales is noteworthy.

Markets and Stocks

Futures for the main U.S. stock indices were trading positively this morning as earnings season continues. In addition, President Trump denied having immediate plans to remove Powell, although he did not rule out the possibility in the future. In Congress, three bills to regulate cryptocurrencies advanced, though with internal disagreements among Republicans. Meanwhile, recent economic data show a strong labor market and better-than-expected retail sales in June.

In Europe, markets were posting moderate gains. In Asia, markets closed higher. Attention remained focused on Trump’s stance regarding Powell and the new tariffs announced on Japanese imports.

In commodities, oil prices were rising on solid demand data and renewed tensions in the Middle East. Drone attacks in Kurdistan forced the shutdown of several oil fields, reducing regional supply. Meanwhile, gold retreated to $3,313 per ounce, pressured by a stronger dollar after Trump softened his comments about the Fed.

In fixed income, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury rose to 4.46%, while the 2-year yield advanced to 3.91%.

During the second quarter of 2025, Nemak reported positive results in terms of profitability, with an 11.7% y/y increase in EBITDA (comparable), despite a 4.1% decline in volume. Revenues were in line with expectations (+0.6% y/y), supported by a better product mix, pricing adjustments, and foreign exchange effects. The performance exceeded expectations at the EBITDA level thanks to operational efficiencies and commercial agreements. Therefore, we consider the report to have a positive implication.

Walmex reported its 2Q25 results, with consolidated revenues of MXN 246.3 billion, an annual increase of 8.3%, in line with market expectations. However, EBITDA stood at MXN 23.5 billion, below consensus, affected by higher operating expenses. The EBITDA margin contracted by 90 basis points to 9.5%, while net income declined by 10.3% year-over-year. The company highlighted strong performance in e-commerce, with GMV growth of 20%, driven by On-Demand and Marketplace.

Corporate News

– PepsiCo reported quarterly results above expectations, supported by operational efficiencies and margin improvements, despite continued weakness in demand in North America. The company highlighted progress in integrating its food and beverage divisions and a more selective strategy in advertising spending.

– United Airlines reported revenues below estimates, affected by weak domestic fares and operational constraints at its Newark hub. Although earnings beat expectations and the CEO anticipates improvement toward year-end, the competitive environment and capacity limitations continue to pressure the airline’s margins.

– TSMC reported record profits, driven by high demand for advanced chips used in artificial intelligence. The company raised its annual guidance. Sustained growth in AI and key clients like Nvidia and Apple remain important catalysts, although risks from U.S.-Taiwan trade tensions persist.

– Uber announced a strategic alliance with Lucid and Nuro to deploy more than 20,000 robotaxis over six years. The agreement, which includes a $300 million investment and autonomous driving technology, strengthens Uber’s bet on self-driving vehicles.