Daily Brief | July 14 2025

Top News
· In China, exports once again surprised to the upside in June.
· President Donald Trump announced a 30% tariff on all Mexican imports starting August 1. This measure will be in addition to the existing 25% tariffs on autos, steel, aluminum, and shipments outside the USMCA framework.
· South Korea and the European Union are seeking to negotiate agreements with the United States to avoid the imposition of 30% tariffs on their exports to the world’s largest economy.
· The UK labor market cooled sharply, with the number of people available to work rising at the fastest pace since the Covid pandemic.
Economic Outlook
China’s exports once again surprised to the upside in June, rising 5.8% year over year, above the 5.0% consensus and accelerating from May’s 4.8%. Monthly shipments to the U.S. grew 32.4%, likely benefiting from a temporary easing of tariffs amid a negotiated pause between both nations. Rare earth metal exports also showed strong momentum, up 32.0% month-over-month to 7,742 tons, suggesting greater activity in strategic sectors. Imports rose 1.1% year over year, reversing the previous month’s -3.4% decline, pointing to a slight recovery in domestic demand and strategic inventory buildup, especially in soy and crude oil. As a result, China’s trade surplus reached $114.7 billion in June, the widest since January. Year-to-date, the country has accumulated over $550 billion in surplus. Overall, the data reflect a defensive export strategy and continued resilience in foreign trade despite a more restrictive global environment.
Markets and Stocks
U.S. equity futures were slightly higher on Monday morning. Meanwhile, President Donald Trump announced 30% tariffs on imports from the European Union and Mexico, effective August 1. Investors are also focused on the start of Q2 earnings season, with companies like JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Netflix, and United Airlines reporting throughout the week. Elsewhere, Bitcoin hit a new all-time high above $122,000, driven by record inflows into crypto-linked ETFs and the kickoff of “Crypto Week” in the U.S. Congress, where key digital asset regulation bills are set to be discussed. In Europe, markets traded lower amid tariff concerns, while in Asia, markets closed mixed.
In commodities, oil prices climbed for a third straight session, supported by additional U.S. sanctions on Russia and stronger crude imports from China. Meanwhile, gold eased slightly after hitting a three-week high, as trade tensions and expectations of Fed rate cuts continued to support risk aversion.
In fixed income, U.S. Treasury yields moved marginally. The 10-year yield held steady at 4.43%, while the 2-year yield rose to 3.90%.
In Mexico, the IPC futures traded higher (+1.27%), while the exchange rate closed at 18.64 pesos per dollar in the previous session.
Televisa was downgraded by Moody’s to Ba1, pushing it below investment grade. The downgrade reflects ongoing subscriber losses across all business lines. The outlook remains negative. This decision comes just weeks after S&P lowered its outlook to negative, citing a cumulative 42% drop in Televisa’s subscriber base. Revenue-generating units fell 6.3% year over year as of March 2025.
Corporate News
– Fastenal, a U.S. industrial supplier, slightly beat expectations in its second-quarter report, posting earnings per share of $0.29 versus $0.28 expected. The performance was driven by improved operational efficiency and a stabilization in industrial demand.
– Superman, owned by Warner Bros. Discovery, generated $122 million in U.S. and Canadian box office revenue during its debut, beating initial estimates. The film kicks off a 10-year plan to reboot the DC cinematic universe, raising expectations for a sustained recovery in the company’s film division.
– Crypto-related companies like Riot Platforms, CleanSpark, and MARA Holdings traded higher after Bitcoin surpassed $122,000 for the first time, fueled by record inflows into crypto ETFs. Renewed institutional demand and regulatory progress in the U.S. continue to bolster optimism in the sector.

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