Daily Brief | July 11 2025

Top News

·     Industrial production in Mexico contracted in May, although it outperformed market expectations.

·     White House officials criticize Jerome Powell’s handling of the rate cycle. The pressure comes amid debate over his potential reappointment as Chair.

·     The EU awaits formal communication from Trump regarding the new tariffs. Markets are reacting cautiously to the potential impact on trade flows and global confidence.

·     UK GDP posted a monthly decline of -0.1% in May, dragged down by weakness in services and construction. This marks the second consecutive contraction in activity, according to official data.

Economic Outlook

Industrial production in Mexico contracted in May, although it outperformed market expectations. In the fifth month of the year, industrial activity declined -0.4% y/y in non-seasonally adjusted terms (vs. -1.5% expected). By component, mining fell -8.4% y/y, electricity, water, and gas supply dropped -3.8% y/y, construction declined -1.0% y/y, while manufacturing rose significantly by 1.4% y/y. On a monthly basis, industrial production rebounded 0.6% in May, after increasing 0.2% in April and falling -1.2% in March. Within sectors, mining contracted -1.1%, electricity, water, and gas rose 0.4%, and construction and manufacturing grew 2.8% and 0.1%, respectively. Overall, industrial output showed a contraction in May; however, figures were well above expectations of a deeper decline. At the margin, the rebound suggests that the economy may be stabilizing in Q2 2025 after a prolonged period of weakness.

Markets and Stocks

U.S. index futures were trading with mixed movements this morning, following the all-time highs reached on Thursday. This comes amid renewed trade tensions after President Trump announced 35% tariffs on imports from Canada starting August 1, along with threats of broad-based tariffs ranging from 15% to 20% on other trade partners. In Europe, markets were trading lower amid uncertainty over the direction of trade negotiations between the U.S. and the European Union. In Asia, markets closed mixed. Global trade tensions continue to shape investor sentiment, particularly the lack of clarity regarding future tariffs and the possibility of new sanctions on Russia.

In the commodities market, oil prices were holding higher despite the weak demand outlook revised by the IEA. Gold, meanwhile, was up to $3,356 per ounce, driven by the search for safe-haven assets amid rising trade tensions and expectations of Fed rate cuts.

In fixed income, U.S. Treasury yields were climbing. The 10-year note stood at 4.38% (+3 bps), while the 2-year rose to 3.88% (+1 bp).

In Mexico, the IPyC futures were trading 1.23% higher, while the exchange rate closed at 18.61 pesos per dollar.

Pinfra announced the completion of the sale of 100% of its subsidiary, Infraestructura Portuaria Mexicana, operator of the Altamira port, to Terminal Investment Limited Holding for an amount exceeding $800 million. The transaction, which received the required regulatory approvals, will allow the company to strengthen its financial position and liquidity, with the intention of reinvesting the proceeds in strategic infrastructure assets within the country.

Corporate News

– Levi Strauss significantly beat market expectations in its quarterly report, driven by strong execution in direct-to-consumer sales, record margins, and reduced reliance on promotions. The company also raised its full-year revenue and profit guidance, while acknowledging risks related to tariffs in key supply chain countries. Levi’s stated it would absorb the impact without compromising profitability.

– Crypto-related stocks advanced as bitcoin hit a new all-time high above $118,000, driven by the largest year-to-date inflows into bitcoin ETFs. The rally was further supported by expectations of a looser monetary policy and growing institutional interest. Coinbase and MicroStrategy gained as they remained exposed to the crypto surge.

– BP announced it expects strong results from its oil trading business and increased upstream production, particularly in the U.S. However, it warned that lower oil and gas prices could negatively impact quarterly revenues by up to $1.1 billion. The company also acknowledged extraordinary charges from asset impairments, adding caution to its market outlook.