Daily Brief | July 07 2025

Top News

·      Retail sales in the Eurozone continued to grow in May.

·     Germany’s industrial production grew more than expected in May, driven by a rebound in the automotive and energy sectors, according to data from the Federal Statistical Office.

·     From January to June 2025, 709,344 new cars were sold in Mexico (-0.25% y/y), 2,006,720 light vehicles were produced (+0.47% y/y), and 1,666,184 units were exported (-2.83% y/y) from the country.

·     Trump confirmed that letters will be sent today notifying new tariffs that will take effect on August 1. Some countries may receive extensions if negotiations progress.

Economic Outlook

Retail sales in the Eurozone continued growing in May. In the fifth month of the year, retail sales rose 1.8% y/y (1.3% est.), after increasing 2.7% y/y in April and 2.1% y/y in March. With this, the indicator has now recorded eleven consecutive months of annual growth. Within retail sales, food sales rose 0.5% y/y (prev. 2.6%), while non-food stores grew 2.4% y/y (prev. 2.7%) and gas stations advanced 2.8% (prev. 4.2%). Looking into the main economies of the European bloc, sales in Germany rose 1.6% y/y (prev. 2.9%), in France 3.4% y/y (prev. 3.2%), and in Spain 4.8% y/y (prev. 4.2%). On a monthly basis, the indicator fell by -0.7%, breaking a three-month streak of growth. Overall, retail sales continue to show signs of improvement, possibly as a result of the interest rate cuts carried out by the European Central Bank last year and this year. In this regard, the consumption figures may also reflect reduced household savings.

Markets and Stocks

Futures of major U.S. indices were trading slightly higher this morning as investors await the announcement of U.S. trade tariffs, which will take effect on August 1, not this week as previously expected. The lack of clarity about which countries will be affected keeps markets uncertain. In Europe, major indices were trading slightly up, while in Asia, markets closed mixed.

In commodities, oil was regaining ground despite OPEC’s agreement to increase production in August. Saudi Arabia raised the price of its flagship crude for Asia, reflecting confidence in demand. Gold was down 0.8% to $3,312 per ounce, pressured by a stronger dollar and lower expectations for Fed rate cuts.

In fixed income, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stood at 4.36%, while the 2-year yield dipped slightly to 3.87%, amid caution over the global trade outlook and anticipation for the Fed’s latest meeting minutes.

In the local market, the IPC futures were trading up 1.08%, while the exchange rate closed the previous session around 18.73 pesos per dollar.

Corporate News

– Elon Musk announced the creation of a new political party called the “America Party.” The news raised concerns among investors, who believe his growing political involvement distracts from Tesla’s key operational challenges—especially after a 14% drop in second-quarter deliveries and increasing competition in China.

– Shell anticipates weak quarterly results due to underperformance in its gas trading unit. The company, which will report second-quarter earnings on July 31, warned that this segment will weigh on its profits, in a market environment where trading margins have been particularly volatile.