Daily Brief | July 03 2025

Top News

·     In the United States, June employment figures remained strong.

·     In Mexico, private consumption and gross fixed investment showed mixed data in April.

·     The Ministry of Finance (SHCP) reduced by 85% the external debt amortizations scheduled for 2026 through the repurchase of two bonds worth 3.593 billion dollars. So far this year, the Ministry has refinanced around 6.094 billion USD.

·     The United States announced a trade agreement with Vietnam, in which it will impose a 20% tariff on imports—lower than the 46% announced on Liberation Day in early April—while Vietnam announced it would reduce its tariffs on U.S. products. 

Economic Outlook

In the United States, June employment figures remained strong. In June 2025, non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000 jobs, above the consensus estimate of 120,000. Additionally, job creation figures for April and May were revised upward by a total of 16,000 for the two months. On the other hand, the unemployment rate stood at 4.1% in June, below the consensus expectation of 4.3%. Meanwhile, annual wage growth in the sixth month of the year was 3.7%, below the market expectation of 3.9%. Overall, the labor market remains resilient and very strong, and job creation exceeded what was anticipated by the ADP private employment survey. Following the publication of this data, the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond yield rose from 4.28% to 4.33%.

In Mexico, private consumption and gross fixed investment showed mixed data in April. In April, private consumption grew by 1.1% after declining -0.2% in March and rising 1.4% in February, based on monthly figures adjusted for seasonality. On an annual basis, private consumption grew 0.7% in the fourth month of the year, with domestic goods and services rising by 1.3% and 4.5%, respectively, while imported goods fell by -8.3%, according to seasonally adjusted figures. Meanwhile, gross fixed investment declined -1.7% month-on-month, breaking a two-month streak of moderate gains. On an annual comparison, investment dropped -7.7%, based on seasonally adjusted data. Within this, construction and acquisition of machinery and equipment declined by -5.5% and -9.1%, respectively. Overall, consumption figures surprised to the upside, while investment remains weak. We are watching closely to evaluate whether the improvement in consumption continues in the coming months.

Markets and Stocks

In the United States, futures for the main indices were trading higher after the release of the June employment report, which showed the creation of 147,000 non-farm jobs, above the estimate of 120,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, compared to the estimated 4.3%. Today’s session will be brief due to the July 4th holiday. In Europe, markets were mostly positive as investors processed political tensions in the United Kingdom and their potential fiscal impact. Finally, in Asia, markets closed in positive territory. Vietnam stood out by reaching its highest level in more than three years following the announcement of a trade agreement with the U.S.

As for commodities, oil remained virtually unchanged amid ongoing concerns over demand given a potential reinstatement of U.S. tariffs and increased OPEC production. A surprise increase in U.S. crude inventories also played a role. Meanwhile, gold fell 0.9%, as markets awaited clearer signals on the Fed’s monetary policy following the strong employment data.

In fixed income, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield rose to 4.33%, while the 2-year yield rose more than 9 basis points (to 3.88%), reflecting a lower likelihood of immediate rate cuts by the Fed following the solid labor report.

Regarding the local stock market, the IPyC futures were trading higher (+1.25%), while the exchange rate stood at 18.79 pesos per dollar in the previous session.

Corporate News

– Apple reported an 8% increase in iPhone sales in China during the second quarter, marking its first year-over-year gain in that country since 2023. The growth was driven by aggressive e-commerce promotions and improvements in its device trade-in program—a positive response in a market where Apple had lost ground to Huawei.

– Tesla reported better-than-expected vehicle deliveries in the second quarter, fueling expectations that the sales decline may have bottomed out. Despite a 14% year-over-year drop, the results exceeded more pessimistic estimates, easing concerns about competitive pressure in China and the impact of political controversies tied to its CEO.

– Microsoft announced a new layoff of 9,000 employees as part of an internal restructuring to reduce hierarchical levels and increase operational agility. While the announcement underscores a focus on efficiency, the market had already priced in part of the impact after several prior rounds of layoffs this year.