Daily Brief | August 4 2025

Top News

·     In Mexico, consumer confidence fell in June.

·     U.S. President Donald Trump will announce a new Federal Reserve governor and a new head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, following firings and resignations that open the door for candidates aligned with his economic agenda.

·     The Canadian government remains confident it can reach an agreement with the U.S. to reduce tariffs of up to 35% on certain products, maintaining a constructive tone despite challenging trade negotiations under the USMCA.

·     Mexico and the U.S. are finalizing a pact to curb fentanyl and arms trafficking, which could pave the way for a trade deal and avert new 25% tariffs on Mexican exports.

Economic Outlook

In Mexico, consumer confidence improved slightly in July. In the seventh month of the year, the Consumer Confidence Index rose 0.4 points from the previous month to 45.9 points, based on seasonally adjusted figures. However, on an annual basis, consumer confidence remains in negative territory, standing 1.2 points below its July 2024 level. Within the index, gains were recorded in perceptions of the current economic situation of households (51.8 points), the current economic situation of the country (40.8 points), and—more notably—in the ability to purchase durable goods (32.0 points). In contrast, the 12-month household economic outlook (57.4 points) and the national economic outlook (47.5 points) deteriorated. Overall, consumer confidence remains at moderate levels, showing mixed signals between present conditions and future expectations. The reading suggests that private consumption could continue to grow, but at a restrained pace in the coming months

Markets and Stocks

U.S. equity futures were trading higher this morning as investors digested July’s weak jobs report and President Trump’s announcement of new tariffs. The corporate earnings season continues, with attention turning to Palantir after the close. In Europe, markets were mostly positive, with U.K. banks such as Lloyds rebounding after a favorable court ruling in an auto finance case. In Asia, markets closed mixed.

In commodities, oil retreated after OPEC announced it will increase production in September by 547,000 barrels per day, reversing some of its deepest cuts. Gold edged higher, moderating Friday’s strong rally sparked by weak employment data that fueled expectations for Fed rate cuts.

In fixed income, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield stood at 4.20%, while the 2-year yield was at 3.67%, both easing slightly amid renewed concerns over economic health and the impact of trade policies.

Walmex announced the resignation of CEO Ignacio Caride, who is stepping down for personal reasons after just over a year in the role. Cristian Barrientos, current head of Walmart Chile and former senior VP of operations in Mexico, will serve as interim CEO

Corporate News

– Berkshire Hathaway reported a 4% drop in quarterly operating profit due to weaker insurance revenues. The company warned that the new tariffs imposed by the Trump administration could affect most of its divisions, keeping investors cautious.

– Boeing is under pressure as more than 3,200 defense division workers in St. Louis began a strike—the first in nearly three decades—after rejecting the company’s latest wage offer. The move threatens delays in key defense programs and raises operational risks for the company.

– Amphenol announced the acquisition of CommScope’s broadband and cable unit for $10.5 billion in cash, strengthening its position in connectivity solutions and capitalizing on growing demand in data centers and AI networks. The deal is part of Amphenol’s expansion strategy and CommScope’s divestment plan to reduce debt.