Daily Brief | August 27 2025

Top News

·     Mexico’s trade balance showed growth in both exports and imports in July.

·     The Conference Board’s consumer confidence showed little variation between July and August, moving from 98.7 to 97.4 points. Consumers continue to cite tariffs as their main concern.

·     U.S. President Donald Trump doubled tariffs on Indian products to 50%, marking one of the harshest globally, in retaliation for India’s purchases of Russian oil.

·     The European Union is moving forward with a fast-track initiative to eliminate tariffs on U.S. products as part of ongoing negotiations to preserve trade flows.

Economic Outlook

Mexico’s trade balance showed growth in both exports and imports in July. In the seventh month of the year, a trade deficit (exports minus imports) of 17 million dollars was recorded, compared to the surplus of 514 million reported in June. In July 2025, exports grew 4.0% year-over-year, reflecting a 5.2% increase in non-oil exports and a 23% drop in oil exports. Within non-oil exports, agricultural products fell -5.6% y/y, mining exports rose 22.2% y/y, and manufacturing exports increased 5.3% y/y. As for imports, these also grew in July 2025 by 1.7% y/y, driven by a 7.1% decline in oil imports and a 2.5% rise in non-oil imports. By type of goods, consumption goods rose slightly by 0.4% y/y, capital goods fell -2.2% y/y, and intermediate goods increased 2.5% y/y. As a result, the cumulative trade balance for the first seven months of 2025 showed a surplus of 1.416 billion dollars, compared with a deficit of -12.136 billion for the same period last year. Overall, the trade balance figures show that foreign trade remains dynamic, supported mainly by manufacturing exports.

Markets and Stocks

Futures of the main U.S. indices were trading with slight positive moves this morning, as investors awaited Nvidia’s earnings report to be released after the close, which could set the market’s tone for the rest of the year. Attention also remains on the Federal Reserve, after President Donald Trump announced the dismissal of Governor Lisa Cook, a decision that could lead to a legal dispute. In Europe, markets were trading mixed, with focus on the political uncertainty in France. In Asia, markets closed mixed.

In commodities, oil prices rebounded slightly after Tuesday’s drop, supported by reports of lower U.S. inventories and new attacks on Russian refineries. Meanwhile, gold fell 0.4% to 3,380 dollars per ounce, pressured by the strength of the dollar after reaching its highest level in two weeks in the previous session.

In fixed income, the yield on the 10-year Treasury stood at 4.28%, while the 2-year yield dropped to 3.65%, with the curve deepening its inversion amid uncertainty over the Fed’s independence and the direction of monetary policy.

Corporate News

– Shares of MongoDB rose 30% after beating expectations, posting adjusted earnings of 1 dollar per share versus the 66 cents estimated.

– Kohl’s reported earnings of 56 cents per share, well above the 29 cents expected.

– Canada Goose shares jumped 17% after reports that Bain Capital received offers to acquire the company and take it private, valuing it at around 1.35 billion dollars.