Daily Brief | August 18 2025

Top News

·     This week brings several key events: Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, the FOMC monetary policy minutes, and the Bank of Mexico’s monetary policy minutes.

·     European leaders will join Volodymyr Zelensky to meet with Donald Trump in Washington, in an effort to strengthen Zelensky’s position as the U.S. president presses Ukraine to accept a quick peace deal to end the war.

·     Trade advisor Peter Navarro described India’s purchases of Russian crude as “corrosive” and threatened 50% tariffs on Indian exports, complicating bilateral trade deal negotiations.

·     The Japanese government dismissed comments by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who said the Bank of Japan was “lagging” in monetary policy, in what seemed like an attempt to pressure the bank into raising interest rates.

Economic Outlook

This week features several key events: Jerome Powell’s speech at the Jackson Hole symposium, the FOMC monetary policy minutes, and the Bank of Mexico’s monetary policy minutes. Regarding Powell’s speech, the Fed chair usually uses Jackson Hole to share his views on the economy and monetary policy outlook. However, this year’s symposium coincides with the Federal Reserve’s five-year review of its operating framework. This review, conducted every five years, serves to clarify, among other things, the Fed’s reaction function for the coming years.

Powell has hinted in some remarks that the 2.0% inflation target will remain unchanged, but he has given no further clues about what else might be adjusted. In 2020, the Fed had modified the target from a strict 2.0% to a 2.0% average over time, but this was quickly abandoned after the 2021–2022 inflation surge. Powell’s speech will take place at the end of the week.

Meanwhile, the monetary policy minutes could provide insight into FOMC members’ thinking, and the committee may consider a rate cut at the September meeting. Lastly, the Bank of Mexico will release its minutes from the latest decision, in which it cut rates by 25 basis points. It will be key to determine whether the board still expects to continue cutting rates, or whether there are signs of a possible pause to assess the environment and the inflation path, which has recently ticked higher.

Markets and Stocks

U.S. stock futures slipped this morning after two positive weeks. Investors remain focused on the Jackson Hole symposium and the Fed’s latest meeting minutes. In Europe, equities traded lower ahead of the Washington meeting between Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelensky, and European leaders. In Asia, markets closed in positive territory.

In commodities, oil rose after Peter Navarro warned that India’s purchases of Russian crude finance the war in Ukraine. Meanwhile, gold gained 0.2% to $3,342 per ounce, supported by lower Treasury yields and a weaker dollar.

In fixed income, the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield stood at 3.74%, while the 10-year yield was at 4.30%, both slightly lower on the day.

Corporate News

– Novo Nordisk gained after its drug Wegovy received U.S. approval to treat MASH liver disease, becoming the first GLP-1 therapy authorized for this condition.

– Dayforce rose following reports that private equity firm Thoma Bravo is in advanced talks to acquire it, reinforcing expectations that the company could achieve a better valuation outside the public market, where it has faced limited recognition despite strong revenue growth.

– Tesla shares fell amid reports that the company is offering steep leasing discounts in the U.K. to boost sales.