Daily Brief | August 15 2025

Top News

·     In China, July’s economic indicators reflected a significant loss of momentum, with slower growth in both industrial production and household consumption.

·     In the U.S., retail sales rose 0.5% m/m in July, following a 0.9% m/m gain in June, supported by robust auto demand and back-to-school promotions from major retailers such as Amazon and Walmart.

·     The New York Fed’s Empire State Manufacturing Index climbed to 11.9 points, up 5.5 units from the prior month and well above the consensus forecast of zero.

·     Later today in the U.S., industrial production figures and the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index will be released. The former is expected to remain flat, while the latter is projected to advance to around 62 points.

Economic Outlook

In China, July’s economic indicators pointed to a clear slowdown, with both industrial production and consumer spending losing momentum. Industrial output grew 5.7% y/y, marking its weakest pace in eight months. Similarly, retail sales increased just 3.7% y/y —the smallest gain since December 2024— after a 4.8% rise the prior month. Fixed-asset investment in the first seven months of the year rose only 1.6% y/y, well below market expectations, underscoring broad-based weakness in activity. Persistent domestic demand softness, industrial overcapacity, and ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. —which maintains tariffs of up to 55%— continue to weigh on the expansion of the world’s second-largest economy. Against this backdrop, analysts now expect GDP growth to slow to 4.5% in Q3 and 4.0% in Q4, implying a full-year 2025 expansion of around 4.6%, below the official 5.0% target.

Markets and Stocks

U.S. index futures were trading slightly higher this morning, with the S&P 500 and Dow set to end the week in positive territory after strong July retail sales data. Investors are also closely watching the meeting between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in Alaska, with a potential ceasefire agreement in Ukraine at the center of the agenda.

In Europe, equity markets were higher, led by a sharp rally in NKT after it raised its full-year guidance amid booming demand for renewable energy, and by ABB’s agreement with Noveon Magnetics for the supply of rare-earth magnets. In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed at an all-time high following stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP data.

In commodities, oil prices were lower, with Brent at $66.37 per barrel and WTI at $63.39, pressured by expectations that a potential Ukraine ceasefire could boost Russian supply and by forecasts of a global surplus. Gold edged up to $3,342 per ounce, supported by a weaker dollar.

In fixed income, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield held at 4.28%, while the 2-year yield stood at 3.71%, little changed after the retail sales release.

Corporate News

– UnitedHealth shares were up more than 11% in pre-market trading after disclosures showed that Berkshire Hathaway, Michael Burry, and David Tepper had taken significant positions in the company.

– Intel shares gained over 3% following reports that the Trump administration is considering acquiring a stake to help finance its new plants in Ohio.

– Applied Materials issued quarterly guidance below expectations, fueling concerns over demand amid the ongoing trade dispute with China.