Daily Brief | August 14 2025

Top News

·     The Timely Indicator of Private Consumption (IOCP) in Mexico suggests that it remained weak at the beginning of Q3 2025.

·     In the United States, producer prices (PPI) accelerated in July.

·     Initial unemployment insurance claims stood at 224,000 in the week ending August 9, below the consensus expectation of 228,000 and the previous week’s figure of 227,000.

·     In China, yuan-denominated bank lending contracted in July, the first contraction in 20 years, while total credit supply, i.e., M2, grew by 8.8%, exceeding consensus expectations.

Economic Outlook

The Timely Indicator of Private Consumption (IOCP) in Mexico suggests that it remained weak at the beginning of Q3 2025. INEGI reported that the IOCP, a nowcasting model for private consumption, estimates a decline of -0.1% y/y in June and a decline of -0.4% y/y in July, according to seasonally adjusted figures. In monthly terms, the Timely Indicator of Private Consumption forecasts moderate growth of 0.3% and 0.6% for the same months, also according to seasonally adjusted figures. In this regard, despite improvements in the margin, the IOCP estimates that the economy could start off weak in the third quarter in the most important category of gross domestic product.

In the United States, producer prices (PPI) accelerated in July. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported that producer inflation accelerated sharply in the seventh month of the year, rising 0.9% month-on-month, well above the consensus expectation of 0.2% month-on-month and the previous month’s stagnation. In annual terms, producer price inflation rebounded from 2.4% in June to 3.3% in July, showing that cost pressures accelerated. Excluding the most volatile items such as energy and food, increases of 0.9% m/m and 3.7% y/y were recorded. In this regard, the rapid acceleration in costs that companies are facing is striking, which according to the BLS is associated with a virtually across-the-board increase in the production of goods and services.

Markets and Stocks

Futures on major US indices were trading slightly lower this morning after higher-than-expected inflation data. The producer price index rose 0.9% month-on-month in July. Expectations continue to point to an upcoming rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September. In Europe, stock markets showed mixed performance after eurozone industrial production fell in June, while in the UK, GDP surprised on the upside with quarterly growth of 0.3%. On the other hand, Asian markets closed in negative territory.

In the commodities market, oil rose, driven by supply risks ahead of the US-Russia summit and possible secondary sanctions on buyers of Russian crude. Gold fell to $3,351 per ounce against a marginally stronger dollar, although it remained supported by expectations of rate cuts in the US.

In fixed income, the yield on the 2-year US Treasury bond stood at 3.71%, while the 10-year bond traded at 4.25%.

Corporate News

– Bullish, a cryptocurrency exchange platform, debuted on the New York Stock Exchange with an intraday rise of up to 140% after setting the price of its IPO at $37, well above the expected range, raising $1.1 billion and reaching a valuation of close to $10.25 billion at the close.

– Deere & Co. cut the upper end of its annual revenue forecast due to lower grain prices affecting farmers’ spending, leading to a drop of around 6% in its shares.

– Cisco Systems Inc. presented a cautious forecast for the current fiscal year, despite sales from artificial intelligence projects beginning to show growth.