Daily Brief | August 1 2025

Top News

·     In the United States, July employment figures suggest signs of weakness in the economy.

·     President Donald Trump announced yesterday afternoon a new round of tariffs targeting several economies. Some of the announced rates include: Canada at 35% (previously 25%), Switzerland at 39% (previously 31%), Brazil at 50% (previously 10%), and Europe at 15% (previously 20%).

·     Later today, the ISM manufacturing index will be released, and it is expected to come in at 49.5 points for the seventh month of the year.

·     In the Eurozone, inflation stood at 2.0% in July. Within the data, inflation in Spain rose from 2.3% to 2.7%, while in Germany it fell from 2.0% to 1.8%, and in France it remained unchanged at 0.9%.

Economic Outlook

In the United States, July employment figures point to signs of weakness in the economy. In July 2025, nonfarm payrolls increased by 73,000 jobs, falling short of the consensus estimate of 110,000. Additionally, employment figures for May and June were revised down by a combined 258,000 jobs. On the other hand, the unemployment rate stood at 4.2% in July, in line with market expectations. Meanwhile, annual wage growth came in at 3.9% for the month, above both the market consensus and the previous reading of 3.8%. Overall, the labor market cooled in July, with payroll growth coming in below expectations and unusually large downward revisions to previous months. In this context, the Federal Reserve’s task becomes more complicated, as inflation has begun to pick up while the labor market may be showing signs of weakness.

Markets and Stocks

Equity markets began August with losses, following a volatile week marked by economic concerns and new tariffs. Over the week, the S&P 500 posted a decline of 0.8% and the Dow dropped 1.7%, while the Nasdaq registered a marginal gain. The U.S. employment report revealed a slowdown in the labor market, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by only 73,000 jobs in July, well below the 110,000 expected, and with sharp downward revisions to May and June figures. This has increased the likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September. Meanwhile, the White House updated tariff rates, further fueling uncertainty over global trade.

In the bond market, the 2-year Treasury yield fell nearly 17 basis points to 3.7%, while the 10-year yield declined 11 basis points to 4.26%, following the release of the employment data.

Oil prices are trading flat on Friday but are on track to close the week higher, as investors remain cautious over the impact of newly announced tariffs and sanctions by President Trump. Meanwhile, gold is unchanged on the day but is heading for a third straight weekly loss.

Corporate News

-Apple reported strong quarterly results, with iPhone sales growing 13% and total revenue rising 10%, marking its fastest pace of growth since December 2021. CEO Tim Cook highlighted the company’s plans to significantly expand its investment in artificial intelligence and expressed openness to pursuing acquisitions.

-Amazon disappointed the market by issuing operating income guidance below expectations for the current quarter, projecting a range between $15.5 billion and $20.5 billion.

– Moderna revised its full-year revenue outlook downward, despite second-quarter earnings and revenue beating estimates, reflecting concerns about future demand for its products.