Kapital Market Brief | September 19 2025

Top news

·     In Mexico, aggregate demand grew in the second quarter of 2025.

·     The IOAE estimates that the Mexican economy remained weak in the third quarter of the year. According to seasonally adjusted figures, the indicator anticipates a -0.5% m/m contraction in July and a 0.1% m/m expansion in August.

·     The Bank of Japan decided to keep its policy rate at 0.5% and announced the sale of central bank assets in its ETF and real estate investment trust (J-REIT) portfolios.

·     Japan’s core inflation stood at 2.7% y/y in August, its lowest level in the last nine months and below July’s 3.1% y/y.

Economic outlook

In Mexico, aggregate demand grew in the second quarter of 2025. During the period, aggregate demand, equal to aggregate supply, increased 1.4% q/q in real and seasonally adjusted terms. On the supply side, GDP advanced 0.6% q/q, while imports of goods and services rebounded 3.9% q/q. On the demand side, private consumption grew 1.2% q/q, government consumption rose 0.5% q/q, and gross fixed capital formation increased 0.2% q/q, while exports expanded 0.6% q/q, also seasonally adjusted. On an annual basis, aggregate demand grew 1.4% and exports surged 12.0%. Overall, the Mexican economy showed a better performance in nearly all components of aggregate demand during the second quarter; however, on an annual comparison, weakness remains in private consumption (0.5%) and gross fixed capital formation (-5.9%). The figures reveal that external demand has been the main growth driver this year.

Markets and stocks

U.S. stock futures were trading with slight gains this morning. Sentiment remains supported by solid corporate earnings reports, which reinforce the perception that profit expansion is holding up even in a slower-growth environment. In Europe, equities were mostly higher. In Asia, the Bank of Japan left its policy rate at 0.5%, highlighting slowing inflation as a key factor, while markets closed in negative territory.

In commodities, oil retreated around 0.5% amid rising inventories and expectations of higher OPEC production, which rekindled oversupply concerns. Gold, by contrast, extended its upward streak, trading near $3,645 per ounce.

In fixed income, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.13%, while the 2-year yield reached 3.58%.

Corporate news

FedEx beat quarterly expectations and raised its revenue outlook, though it warned of a $1 billion hit from the elimination of the de minimis exemption and U.S. tariffs on China.

Intel staged a historic rally after Nvidia announced a $5 billion investment to co-develop chips, reinforcing recovery prospects for its business.