Daily Brief | August 13 2025

Top News

·     In the U.S., the federal deficit continued to widen in July.

·     Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent pushed for a 50-basis-point rate cut in September, signaling monetary easing in response to signs of labor market weakness.

·     The Trump administration’s nominee to lead the Bureau of Labor Statistics, economist EJ Antoni, proposed suspending the monthly release of the employment report, citing concerns over the quality and accuracy of the data.

·     The Ukrainian president held a videoconference with Donald Trump and European leaders from Berlin, as part of joint efforts ahead of a key summit with Putin in Alaska.

Economic Outlook

In the U.S., the federal deficit continued to widen in the seventh month of the year. In July, federal revenues totaled $338 billion, up 2.5% from the same month a year earlier. Federal spending reached $629 billion, a 9.7% y/y increase, resulting in a fiscal deficit of $291 billion for the month. From October 2024 to July 2025, the cumulative federal deficit stood at $1.629 trillion, representing a 7.4% increase compared to the deficit in the same period a year earlier (Oct. 2023–Jul. 2024). It is important to note that the U.S. fiscal year runs from October of the previous year to September, meaning fiscal year 2025 began in October 2024 and will end in September 2025. Overall, U.S. public finance figures point to a fiscal deficit closing the 2025 fiscal year between 6.5% and 6.6% of GDP, higher than the 6.4% recorded last year, according to our estimates.

Markets and Stocks

U.S. stock index futures were trading higher this morning after a record-setting session driven by softer-than-expected inflation data, which raised the probability of a Fed rate cut in September to nearly 96%. Investors are now awaiting the Producer Price Index release tomorrow and the Jackson Hole symposium scheduled for August 21–23. In Europe, equity markets were also in positive territory, while most Asian markets closed higher.

In commodities, Brent crude prices fell, pressured by expectations of oversupply this year according to the IEA and by the upcoming Trump–Putin summit. Gold rose 0.2% to $3,355 per ounce, supported by a weaker dollar and expectations of a September rate cut, while silver climbed 1.4% and platinum and palladium also posted moderate gains.

In fixed income, U.S. Treasury yields edged lower, with the 10-year yield down to 4.25% and the 2-year yield at 3.69%, amid contained inflation and growing expectations of monetary policy easing.

Corporate News

– CoreWeave issued third-quarter earnings guidance below expectations and reported a sharp increase in losses, driven by higher expenses from its aggressive expansion of AI data centers. The company noted that capacity remains constrained relative to strong demand, creating margin pressures.

– Cava lowered its full-year comparable sales growth outlook after second-quarter revenue missed estimates and traffic growth came in weaker than expected. The company attributed the slowdown to fading momentum from its flagship product. Additionally, it announced an investment in automation startup Hyphen to improve order efficiency and accuracy.

– Tencent beat revenue forecasts with a 15% increase, supported by growth in its video game and social media portfolio, as well as the integration of AI capabilities into its services. The company emphasized its focus on monetizing the WeChat ecosystem and signaled the upcoming launch of major titles such as Valorant Mobile to sustain growth.