Daily Brief | August 11 2025

Top News

·     Industrial production in Mexico contracted in June, confirming the sector’s weakness at the close of the second quarter.

·     European leaders are trying to speak with Donald Trump ahead of his meeting with Vladimir Putin in Alaska, amid tensions over Russian territorial claims and possible ceasefire negotiations in Ukraine.

·     U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said they expect to finalize pending agreements with partners such as Canada, Mexico, and Switzerland in October, following the implementation of Trump’s new tariffs.

·     Producer inflation in China fell more than expected in July (-3.6 vs. -3.3 est.), while consumer prices stagnated, reflecting the impact of weak domestic demand and persistent trade uncertainty on consumer and business confidence.

Economic Outlook

Industrial production in Mexico contracted in June, confirming the sector’s weakness at the close of the second quarter. In the sixth month of the year, industrial activity fell -0.8% y/y on a seasonally adjusted basis, in a context of marked disparity between sectors. By component, mining dropped -8.5% y/y, and electricity, water, and gas generation and distribution fell -3.8% y/y; meanwhile, construction rose 1.5% y/y, and manufacturing remained unchanged, reflecting a mixed performance across branches. On a monthly basis, industrial production declined -0.1% in June, after a 0.7% increase in May. Within the sectors, mining decreased -1.4%, electricity, water, and gas generation and distribution fell -0.2%, construction dropped -0.2%, and manufacturing grew 0.3%. Overall, the data confirm that industrial activity ended 2Q25 with a negative bias, with mining and the energy sector as the main drags, while construction and manufacturing show some resilience. This performance suggests that although a weak environment persists, certain segments could cushion the impact on sector growth in the second half of the year.

Markets and Stocks

Futures for the main U.S. indexes were trading slightly higher this morning, as investors await July’s consumer inflation data, to be released tomorrow, which will be key for the Fed’s next decision. Notably, Nvidia and AMD agreed to deliver 15% of their AI chip sales revenue to China to the U.S. government in exchange for export licenses. In Europe, markets were mixed, while in Asia, markets closed mostly positive.

In the commodities market, oil was steady as the market awaited Friday’s U.S.–Russia summit in Alaska to address the situation in Ukraine. Gold fell around 1.25% to $3,355 per ounce, pressured by expectations of possible U.S. tariffs on 1 kg bullion, although a weaker dollar limited the decline.

In fixed income, the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell to 4.27%, while the 2-year yield held at 3.76%, reflecting investor caution ahead of this week’s inflation data.

Corporate News

– Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices signed an agreement with the U.S. government to deliver 15% of their AI chip sales revenue to China in exchange for export licenses. Nvidia will apply this percentage to sales of its H20 accelerator, and AMD to its MI308 model.

– Micron Technology raised its fiscal fourth-quarter revenue forecast to a range of $11.1 to $11.3 billion. It also increased its earnings per share outlook to between $2.78 and $2.92, citing better DRAM prices and strong demand for high-bandwidth memory used in artificial intelligence applications.

– Paramount acquired exclusive rights to broadcast all UFC events in the U.S. over the next seven years, in a $7.7 billion deal.