Daily Brief | July 28 2025

Top News

·     Mexico’s trade balance showed growth in both exports and imports during June.

·     U.S. President Donald Trump announced a trade agreement with the European Union that imposes a 15% tariff on most European goods. The deal averts a trade war but raises concerns in Europe.

·     Senior U.S. and Chinese officials will resume negotiations in Stockholm on Monday in an effort to extend the current tariff truce by three months and avoid the implementation of significantly higher tariffs.

·     President Trump also stated he will shorten the 50-day deadline previously given to President Putin to end the war in Ukraine, expressing disappointment over continued attacks on Ukrainian cities. 

Economic Outlook

Mexico’s trade balance posted a surplus of $514 million in June, down from $1.23 billion in May. On an annual basis, exports rose 10.6%, driven by a 12.4% increase in non-oil exports, while oil exports plunged 30.4%. Within non-oil exports, agricultural and extractive shipments fell (-2.2% y/y and -5.5% y/y, respectively), while manufacturing exports rose 13.5% y/y. Imports also grew 4.4% y/y in June, with a 5.3% increase in non-oil imports offsetting a 5.4% drop in oil-related purchases. By category, consumer goods imports fell 0.2% y/y, capital goods dropped 8.4%, and intermediate goods rose 6.9%. Cumulatively, the trade balance showed a surplus of $1.43 billion in the first half of 2025, reversing a $10.9 billion deficit from the same period last year. Overall, external trade remains dynamic, driven by strength in manufacturing exports

Markets and Stocks

U.S. equity futures traded with moderate gains this morning, supported by the U.S.-EU trade deal setting a 15% tariff rate on most goods—lower than previously feared. Despite a broadly positive tone, investors remain cautious after a streak of record highs and ahead of a critical earnings week, with over 30% of the S&P 500 set to report. U.S.-China talks begin today in Stockholm and could lead to an extension of the current tariff pause. In Europe, markets were mixed, while Asia also closed mixed. In Japan, Samsung shares rose after announcing a $16.5 billion semiconductor deal with Tesla.

In commodities, oil prices edged higher on optimism that the trade truce would be extended, easing concerns over global demand. However, gains were capped by potential supply increases from OPEC and a likely rebound in Venezuelan output. Gold held steady at $3,329 per ounce.

In fixed income, Treasury yields were mostly flat ahead of this week’s Fed meeting and the PCE inflation report. The 10-year yield stood at 4.40%, and the 2-year yield at 3.93%

Corporate News

– Tesla confirmed a $16.5 billion contract with Samsung to manufacture its next-generation AI6 chips. The deal, running through 2033, supports Tesla’s push into advanced hardware for AI and efficient manufacturing. Elon Musk noted he will personally oversee execution, boosting investor confidence in the initiative’s strategic relevance.

– Boeing’s defense unit faces potential disruption after 3,200 unionized workers in St. Louis rejected a contract offer. A strike could halt production of key military aircraft like the F-15 and F/A-18, adding pressure to a division that has yet to return to profitability.

– Energy stocks rallied after the European Union agreed to purchase $750 billion in U.S. energy as part of the newly announced trade deal. Companies such as Venture Global, New Fortress Energy, and Cheniere saw gains on expectations of increased exports and long-term investment flows.