Daily Brief | July 15 2025

Top News

·     In the United States, CPI inflation in June exceeded consensus expectations.

·     Annual inflation in Canada stood at 1.9% year-on-year in June, in line with market consensus expectations. At the national level, pressures are beginning to be seen in the automotive, clothing, and footwear sectors.

·     China’s gross domestic product grew by 5.2% in the second quarter of 2025, above the consensus estimate of 5.1% and below the 5.4% growth recorded in the first quarter.

·     OPEC said the global economy could perform better than expected in the second half of the year, despite trade conflicts, and that demand for crude oil from refineries would remain high to meet increased travel during the summer. 

Economic Outlook

In the United States, CPI inflation for June exceeded consensus expectations. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that consumer price inflation (CPI) for the sixth month of 2025 rose 0.3% month-on-month, after growing 0.1% in May, according to seasonally adjusted figures. The upturn came from an unexpected increase in housing prices, which rose 0.2% m/m and accounted for most of the month’s increase. In its annual variation, CPI inflation stood at 2.7% in June, above the market consensus expectation of 2.6% and the previous month’s 2.4%, according to non-seasonally adjusted figures. Core inflation, which excludes energy and food, rose 0.1% m/m and 2.9% y/y, both for the sixth month of the year. Overall, consumer prices rose more than expected, but the increase came from the housing component rather than goods, the latter of which could be attributed to tariff pressure. In any case, these figures support a scenario in which the Fed will not cut interest rates at its next meeting in July.

Markets and Stocks

Futures on the main US stock indices are trading mixed, with an upward bias this morning, on a day marked by the release of June consumer inflation data, the start of the corporate reporting season, and expectations surrounding new trade measures. Yesterday, the market closed with slight gains, despite new tariff threats from President Trump on products from the European Union and Mexico.

On the economic front, the consumer price index rose 2.7% annually in June. On the corporate front, Nvidia rose in premarket trading after announcing that it will resume sales of artificial intelligence chips to China, while banks such as JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo reported mixed results at the start of the reporting season.

In the debt market, Treasury bond yields are digesting the inflation data. The 10-year bond yield fell to 4.4%, while the 2-year yield stood at 3.9%.

In commodities, oil prices are trading lower amid uncertainty over the impact of new sanctions if Russia does not end the war in Ukraine within the 50-day deadline set by President Trump. In contrast, gold remains firm, as investors seek refuge from rising global trade tensions and digest signals about the trajectory of inflation in the US.

Corporate News

– JP Morgan shares fell slightly despite reporting second-quarter results that exceeded market expectations. The performance was driven by higher revenues in investment banking and trading operations.

– Wells Fargo shares lost ground after the institution lowered its net income guidance for 2025.

– BlackRock shares are down after the firm reported lower-than-expected second-quarter revenue. Although it remains the world’s largest asset manager, revenue of $5.42 billion fell short of market projections, prompting caution among investors.

– Nvidia shares are up after announcing that it will soon resume sales of its H20 chip for artificial intelligence in China. Sales had been halted since April, when the Trump administration imposed new regulatory requirements. The announcement also boosted other semiconductor companies.