Daily Brief | July 08 2025

Top News

·     President of the United States Donald Trump postponed the end of the reciprocal tariff pause and announced new tariffs.

·     Later today, consumer credit figures for the month of May will be released in the United States. The analyst consensus estimates that credit expanded by 11 billion dollars.

·     The Citi survey revealed that the analyst consensus revised upward its inflation estimate for the end of 2025 and 2026, from 3.9% to 4.0% and from 3.75% to 3.8%, respectively. Despite this, the consensus expects that Banxico’s next move will be a 25 basis point cut in the benchmark interest rate in August.

·     China warned the U.S. not to reignite trade tensions by reinstating tariffs on its products next month, and threatened to retaliate against nations that strike deals with the U.S. to exclude China from supply chains.

·     Japan and South Korea are attempting to negotiate with the United States before August 1st to avoid tariffs of up to 25% on cars and 40% on other products, including chips and batteries.

Economic Outlook

President of the United States Donald Trump postponed the end of the reciprocal tariff pause and announced new tariffs. In a White House statement, two trade-related changes for the United States were disclosed. First, the 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs, originally set to expire on July 9, was extended until August 1, providing a temporary reprieve in ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and the rest of the world. Second, Trump unveiled a list of 14 countries that will see their tariff rates adjusted compared to the levels announced on April 2. Among the listed countries are Japan, whose tariff will increase from 24% to 25%; South Korea, which remains at 25%; South Africa, which stays at 30%; Kazakhstan, which will rise from 27% to 30%; and Laos, which will drop from 48% to 40%, to name a few. Additional tariffs on other countries are expected to be announced in the coming days and weeks. These measures currently exclude Mexico (as well as Canada and China), providing a greater competitive advantage compared to the rest of the world. Following the tariff announcement, the Mexican peso appreciated from 18.75 to 18.61 pesos per dollar in international markets.

Markets and Stocks

Major U.S. stock indexes are trading higher this Tuesday, rebounding from Monday’s declines triggered by President Donald Trump’s tariff announcements. The rebound comes in response to a sign of flexibility from the president, who indicated that the new August 1 deadline for implementing tariffs is “not 100% firm” and that he is open to negotiations with affected countries. These remarks followed the announcement that at least 14 nations—including Japan, South Korea, South Africa, and Kazakhstan—will face new tariffs. However, markets are pricing in the possibility that the measures may not be as severe as initially feared. In this context, shares of companies such as Nvidia and Tesla are gaining in pre-market trading. Meanwhile, investors are closely watching the kickoff of second-quarter earnings season.

In the bond market, U.S. Treasury yields are rising as investors assess the potential economic impact of the new trade offensive. The 10-year yield stands at 4.43%, while the 2-year yield is at 3.91%.

In commodities, oil prices are seeing slight movements after Monday’s rally, affected by OPEC’s decision to increase production in August more than expected, as well as uncertainty surrounding the new U.S. trade policies. Gold is trading lower, pressured by rising bond yields and concerns stemming from trade tensions with key partners such as Japan and South Korea.

Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte reported an 8.5% increase in total passenger traffic during June compared to the same month last year. Traffic reached 2.35 million passengers, driven by an 8.2% rise in domestic travel and a 10.5% increase in international traffic. Monterrey stood out as the main growth driver, with a 20.6% increase.

Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste recorded a total of 6.0 million passengers in June, representing a 1.8% decline compared to the same month in 2024. In Mexico, traffic dropped by 2.8%, while in Puerto Rico it fell 3.3%. In contrast, Colombia posted 1.7% growth, thanks to a 13.3% increase in international passengers. Domestic traffic declined across all regions, with Puerto Rico being the most affected, down 5.1%.

Corporate News

– Solar energy stocks, including Sunrun, First Solar, and Enphase Energy, came under pressure following an executive order by President Donald Trump aimed at reversing subsidies for clean energy.

– HSBC downgraded its recommendation on JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Bank of America, causing shares of these firms to decline in pre-market trading.