Daily Brief | July 04 2025

Top News

·     In Mexico, consumer confidence declined in June.

·     President Donald Trump said Washington will start sending letters to countries on Friday specifying what tariff rates they will face on imports to the United States

·     Donald Trump warned that he will take action against transshipment practices used by China to evade tariffs, including increased scrutiny on intermediary countries such as Vietnam and Mexico.

·     Annual producer price inflation in the Euro Area slowed to 0.3% in May 2025, down from 0.7% in the previous month. The deceleration was mainly driven by a sharper drop in energy prices (-1.4% vs. -0.5% in April). 

Economic Outlook

In Mexico, consumer confidence declined in June. In the sixth month of the year, the consumer confidence index dropped by 1.1 points to 45.4 points, according to seasonally adjusted figures. On an annual basis, consumer confidence also showed a negative reading, standing 2.2 points below its June 2024 level. Within the index, only the expected economic situation of the household over the next 12 months improved (57.7 points), while the current economic situation of the household, the current and future economic situation of the country, and the household’s ability to make purchases of furniture, televisions, washing machines, and other appliances all declined in June. Overall, the consumer confidence figures showed weakness in the sixth month of the year, although the trend has been broadly sideways over the past three months. This reading suggests that consumption may remain stagnant in the coming months.

Markets and Stocks

In the United States, equity markets will remain closed today in observance of Independence Day. Yesterday, major stock indices ended higher following the release of solid employment figures for June. Meanwhile, markets continue to digest the congressional approval of President Donald Trump’s fiscal package, which is expected to generate significant fiscal pressures on public finances in the coming years. In Europe, equity markets were trading lower, while in Asia, performance was positive.

In commodities, oil prices are retreating amid uncertainty over trade tariffs, as the pause announced by the U.S. government expires on July 9 and no agreements have yet been reached with the European Union and Japan. Meanwhile, OPEC is expected to announce an increase in production of just over 400,000 barrels per day at its meeting this weekend. Gold, on the other hand, was trading higher, on track to close the week on a positive note.

Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico announced that in June, the 12 Mexican airports it operates recorded a 0.7% year-over-year increase in total passenger traffic. Meanwhile, Montego Bay saw a 1.9% decline compared to the same period in 2024

Corporate News

– Google enfrenta una queja antimonopolio ante la Unión Europea por parte de un grupo de editores independientes, quienes acusan a la función AI Overviews de causarles un daño irreparable y han solicitado medidas provisionales. Esta herramienta, que genera resúmenes con inteligencia artificial y se muestra por encima de los enlaces tradicionales en más de 100 países, comenzó a incluir anuncios publicitarios desde mayo.

– La petrolera estatal saudí Aramco evalúa la venta de hasta cinco plantas de energía a gas, como parte de una estrategia más amplia para liberar recursos y generar ingresos por decenas de miles de millones de dólares. Según fuentes cercanas, la venta de estas plantas, que abastecen a refinerías, podría recaudar alrededor de 4 mil millones de dólares, en línea con los esfuerzos del gobierno saudí por incrementar las ganancias y transferencias al Estado.