Daily Brief | July 02 2025

Top News

·     In the United States, the ADP private employment survey reported a decline of 33,000 jobs in June.

·     The U.S. Senate approved President Trump’s fiscal package in a 51–50 vote, which includes tax cuts and increased spending on defense and immigration. The package must still pass the House and is expected to be approved on Friday, July 4.

·     U.S. President Donald Trump stated that Israel agreed to a 60-day ceasefire proposal in Gaza. A formal response from Hamas is expected to finalize the agreement.

·     The United States could reach a trade agreement with India, President Trump said, while casting doubt on the possibility of a deal with Japan.

·     The Eurozone unemployment rate stood at 6.3% in May, above both consensus estimates and the April figure of 6.2%. 

Economic Outlook

The ADP private employment survey reported a decline of 33,000 jobs in June. By sector, services posted a net loss of 66,000 jobs, driven by sharp declines in professional and business services (-56,000), education and health (-52,000), and financial activities (-14,000). These losses were partially offset by gains of 32,000 jobs in leisure and hospitality, 14,000 in trade, transportation, and utilities, and 5,000 in the information sector. In contrast, the goods-producing sector added 32,000 jobs, with increases in manufacturing (15,000), construction (9,000), and mining (8,000). According to ADP Chief Economist Nela Richardson, although layoffs remain rare, companies’ reluctance to hire or replace workers led to a net contraction in private employment. Nevertheless, wage growth has not been affected: workers who stayed in their jobs saw a 4.4% year-over-year pay increase in June, while those who switched jobs experienced a 6.8% gain. Overall, June private payrolls marked the first decline since March 2023, compared to a downwardly revised 29,000 in May and well below forecasts for a 95,000-job increase.

Markets and Stocks

Futures for major U.S. stock indices were trading higher this morning following the release of private payroll data, which showed a decline of 33,000 jobs in June—well below expectations for a 95,000 gain. Investors remain focused on the fate of President Trump’s spending proposal, which passed the Senate with a tie-breaking vote from the Vice President but still faces hurdles in the House. In Europe, markets traded mixed as investors digested fiscal tensions in the U.K., where Parliament approved welfare system reforms with substantial concessions, raising uncertainty in the bond market. Meanwhile, Asian markets closed lower.

In commodities, oil prices rose moderately after Iran decided to restrict nuclear inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Additionally, OPEC is expected to increase production in July, though analysts believe most of the added supply is already priced in. Gold was up 0.2%.

In fixed income, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.29%, while the 2-year yield climbed to 3.77%.

In Mexico, the IPC futures were up (+1.32%), while the peso-dollar exchange rate closed the previous session at 18.75.

Femsa completed the sale of certain Solistica logistics operations to Grupo Traxión as part of its divestment strategy focused on efficiency and simplification. The transaction, valued at MXN 4.04 billion net, excludes LTL operations in Brazil and marks another step in FEMSA’s plan to concentrate on core businesses in consumer, health, and mobility.

Traxión finalized the acquisition of Solistica’s logistics operations in Mexico and subsequently divested the units in Brazil and Colombia, reducing its net investment to MXN 1.65 billion. The integration is expected to significantly boost its Logistics and Technology segment, which is now projected to account for over 50% of consolidated revenue

Corporate News

– Amazon announced it has surpassed one million robots operating in its logistics centers, all coordinated by a new artificial intelligence model called DeepFleet. While the company highlighted gains in efficiency and the creation of technical jobs, recent comments from the CEO about the potential for sustained workforce reductions due to AI have raised concerns among investors.

– Figma, the collaborative software platform, officially filed to go public on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker “FIG,” in what is shaping up to be one of the year’s most notable IPOs. Investor enthusiasm is driven by strong revenue growth (+46% y/y in Q1) and strong demand from major corporate clients.

– Paramount agreed to pay $16 million to settle a defamation lawsuit filed by Donald Trump over a “60 Minutes” interview. While the company clarified that the settlement does not affect its merger with Skydance nor require a public apology, the political context and internal tensions at CBS News have intensified scrutiny over the company’s governance.