Daily Brief | June 30 2025

Top News

·     In China, June PMIs keep pressure on Chinese officials to implement further stimulus as tariff risks continue to weigh on the economy.

·     Canada scrapped its digital services tax targeting U.S. tech firms just hours before it was set to take effect on Monday, in a bid to unlock stalled trade negotiations with the U.S.

·     The U.S. Senate moved toward voting on Trump’s ambitious tax and spending plan, which includes tax cuts, increased defense and border security spending, and a remittance tax.

·     President Trump is considering maintaining the 25% tariff on imported Japanese vehicles due to the lack of a trade deal, citing a large bilateral deficit.

·     Inflation in Germany eased to 2.0% in June, according to preliminary data from the federal statistics office released on Monday, despite forecasts pointing to slightly higher price pressures in Europe’s largest economy. 

Economic Outlook

In China, June PMIs are keeping pressure on Chinese officials to implement more stimulus measures, as tariff risks continue to weigh on the economy. China’s composite PMI came in at 50.7 in June 2025, up from 50.4 in May. The non-manufacturing PMI slightly improved to 50.5 in June from 50.3 in the previous month. Meanwhile, the manufacturing PMI rose from 49.5 in May to 49.7 in June, remaining below the 50-point threshold for the third consecutive month, indicating continued contraction. Within the manufacturing index, there was a slight uptick in new orders and exports, suggesting some relief in external demand. However, industrial activity continues to reflect a challenging environment, affected by weak domestic consumption, the prolonged real estate crisis, and uncertainty stemming from U.S. tariffs. Additionally, industrial profits contracted by 9.1% year-over-year in May, pointing to squeezed margins due to lower prices and subdued demand. Against this backdrop, expectations are rising that Chinese officials will ramp up stimulus to support economic recovery in the second half of the year.

Markets and Stocks

In the U.S., futures for major indexes were up. This comes on the final trading day of June, a month in which the S&P has gained 4.4% and the Nasdaq nearly 6%, driven by a sharp rebound from April lows. Optimism is supported by the trade truce between the U.S. and Canada, following Ottawa’s removal of its digital services tax, and the U.S. Senate’s progress on Trump’s proposed fiscal package.

In Europe, markets were trading lower after inflation data. Germany reported a 2% annual rate in June, aligning with the ECB’s target, while France and Spain posted slight increases. The ECB is expected to carry out one final rate cut in September. In Asia, markets closed in positive territory, even as China showed continued contraction in manufacturing.

In commodities, oil prices edged lower amid easing geopolitical tensions and expectations that OPEC+ will increase production in August. Meanwhile, gold rose to $3,284 per ounce (+0.3%).

In fixed income, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury held at 4.26%, while the 2-year note traded at 3.73%.

In Mexico, the stock market future rose 1.39%, while the exchange rate closed the previous session at 18.84 pesos per dollar.

Grupo México Transportes (GMXT) approved its delisting from the Mexican Stock Exchange. In an extraordinary shareholders’ meeting, 97.41% of the capital approved the cancellation of its registration with the National Securities Registry and delisting from the BMV. The move is subject to regulatory approval by the CNBV, after which the company will launch a public tender offer. Grupo Carso, a key shareholder in GMXT, stated it intends to remain a partner after the delisting and will not participate in the offer.

Corporate News

– The U.S. Department of Justice settled a case involving Hewlett Packard’s $14 billion acquisition of Juniper Networks. The agreement removes the primary regulatory hurdle to the deal. Although the DOJ imposed conditions—such as divesting its Instant On wireless network business—the regulatory clearance is seen as a win for HPE.

– Moderna announced positive results for its experimental flu vaccine. The drug demonstrated superior efficacy compared to the current standard, paving the way to seek approval later this year. This clinical validation reinvigorates its plan to launch a combined Covid-flu vaccine in 2026.

– Palantir signed an agreement with Accenture Federal Services, which will become its preferred partner for deploying artificial intelligence solutions in U.S. government agencies. The deal strengthens Palantir’s position in the federal space by scaling its Foundry and AIP platforms with Accenture’s operational backing.